Kentucky's 2015 Gubernatorial Race: A Preview of Next Year's Presidential Race?

Kentucky’s 2015 Gubernatorial Race: A Preview of Next Year’s Presidential Race?  In November, Kentucky elected a surprise candidate as their next Governor.  Kentucky Democrats did not like him.  Many, many Kentucky Republicans (especially Mitch McConnell) did not like him.  And yet, Matt Bevin won a fairly comfortable contest over a very flawed Democrat opponent.  Leading up to the election, many of the Kentucky voters that I know and speak with on a regular basis expressed strong distaste for the candidates from both parties.  Even the Republican’s celebration over the win (grossly mispredicted by the state’s largest newspaper, The Curious Journal) was strangely subdued.  I do believe they realize that they now have won a prize whose value is rather dubious.  Is it possible that America is stumbling towards a similar predicament with next year’s Presidential race?

Trump seems to have exceeded the shelf life predicted for him by many self-proclaimed professional political prognosticators (say THAT real fast three times!)  Although the race for the Republican nomination is far from over, it is perilous for Trump’s detractors to dismiss him so easily.  If nothing else, he has proven to possess a resilience, powered by constant media attention, that has surprised…no, SHOCKED… the overwhelming majority of the nation’s political pundits.  On the other side of the political aisle, Hillary and her minions have effectively co-opted the National Democratic Party apparatus and are steadily proceeding towards her coronation as their nominee.  So…what exactly do we have here?

By any objective analysis, Trump is a loud-mouthed, mean-spirited, deviously calculating bully who has blustered his way into a strong lead for the Republican nomination by effectively targeting his amateurish and irresponsible rhetoric towards certain Republican voters.  His essence elicits either blind support or blind hatred from Republicans.  His nomination would undoubtedly split the party and result in many Republican voters staying at home on Election Day next November.  Democrats in leadership positions are absolutely giddy when they consider the prospect of competing against the Donald.  Unfortunately for them, their candidate is not really primed to take full measure of the advantages Trump might present to the Democrats.  Hillary is a proven liar with the personality of a door knob.  She is an unprincipled and ineffective orator who will say anything to anybody at any time (and in any dialect) in an attempt to curry support.  The overwhelming majority of Republicans and Independents recognize her for the dishonest, corrupt, professional politician that she is and a surprising number of Democrats see her the same way…while all the while supporting her with their checkbooks, rhetoric, and print.  It is hard to see how any candidate whose credibility and honesty is so poorly viewed, in such a settled fashion, by such a large number of American voters, could possibly run a successful presidential campaign.  But then again, there is the prospect that Trump will be her opponent.

I can think of no greater belated Christmas gift for the media mob than a Trump v. Clinton Presidential contest next year.  When considering this possibility, I have seen several of them go over the top with excitement.  And to those who can somehow perversely enjoy our nation’s political process, I can easily see how this potential match-up would be entertainment of the highest order.  Unfortunately, for those of us who do NOT see our presidential selection method as a well-oiled and finely tuned machine and do NOT make our livings hanging on every bit of drivel that emanates from the mouths of candidates; such a match-up would be depressing beyond description.  And, on the heels of Obama’s eight years of wandering in the wilderness, it would be a cause for absolute and total despair.  For those of us lucky (or unlucky?) enough to hang our hats in Kentucky, it would be two Novembers in a row where we go the polls and select the lesser of two evils to reward with our vote.  It would be the second time in a year’s span when we hold our nose to perform our civic duty.  It would be a clear indictment of the utter failure perpetrated on this nation by our two major political parties.  And it would throw the future of this nation into a realm of uncertainty that has not been conceived of in my lifetime.  

Filling Up Those Holes

Filling Up Those Holes.  In our country; in our society; in our culture; there is a huge void in peoples’ souls; both young and old.  More than ever before in history, there is a litany of things competing to fill those voids.  From TV evangelists to video games, there is no shortage of profitable enterprises whose entire purpose is to address and exploit that vacuum.   As strange as it may seem to some, the two recent college campus episodes at Yale and the University of Missouri, combined with last night’s Republican presidential primary debate, has led me to write a bit about this topic.

In his recent column posted on RealClearPolitics, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/11/peggy_noonans_words_to_live_by_128692.html  , Peter Berkowitz writes this,  “From informality of dress and casualness of locution to hypersensitivity to slights and shirking of responsibility; from prolonged adolescence—sometimes reaching well into the thirties—to mawkish displays on talk and reality shows; from disengagement from civic life to politicians who lie brazenly with every expectation that their side will embrace their bald-faced falsehoods as self-evident truths, adults in contemporary America exhibit childish self-regard, thoughtlessness, and petulance.  Universities, which increasingly resemble kindergartens for adolescents and the adults who are paid to educate them, have taken this immaturity to new heights.”  Read that once more, maybe twice, and then reflect on it.  Berkowitz captures in a few carefully selected words exactly what we are witnessing in today’s world that makes us shake our heads and wonder what the hell is going on. 

Our children are stuck in their children mode.  Regardless of how good and pure their hearts are, many (if not most) are devoid of the life lessons that help them develop into mature and independent adults.  They go from high school to college to….where?  Some go back home (permanently).  Some go directly into supervisory or policy-making positions that grossly overvalue their education, mistaking it for life experience, and they never have the benefit of someone telling them, in a fashion they will listen to, that they do not know what the hell they are talking about.  For many of these kids, life is nothing more than a board game.  Collegiate academia has become a self-perpetuating bastion of liberal gobbely-gook; creating a nice, cushy career for shiftless intellectuals who see everyday existence as nothing more than another excuse for an endless philosophical discussion about the meaning of life and the lightness of light.  The college system (bubble??)  continues to atrophy, reliably fed and nourished by our nation’s elementary and high school network and the everlasting misnomer that any money spent on the education of our youth is money well spent.  It is becoming more ineffective and inefficient each day, saddling its eventual graduates (and non-graduates) with debilitating debt, and skill sets that makes them annoying dinner guests and infuriating children rather than productive citizens.  These young adults have holes in their lives and in their souls; holes that are being filled by gaseous college professors who view them as nothing more than modeling clay given to them for their experimentation and amusement.  At some point in this education process, we must get back to providing an education to people that leads to a purpose; a career in something that they can find both personally rewarding and self-sustaining.  Through family revitalization, education reform, and simple common sense, our adolescents must obtain ethical standards for conducting their private lives, their public lives, and achieving some form of independence in and from society.  I noticed in reading about the University of Missouri episode that the kid that was conducting the hunger strike had been in college for eight years.  EIGHT years!...are you kidding me.   There is so much wrong with that situation that I don’t know where to begin.  Education must get back to the point where it is a means to an end; not a personal magical mystery tour.  Self-enrichment and self-fulfillment are principles with merit, but they must be secondary to the primary purpose of college: Broadening your personal experience and knowledge in specific preparation for becoming a useful and responsible citizen of this society.  If kids want to change the world (and lord knows a lot of it needs changing), they must come to understand that they must first equip themselves to achieve that change and then move on to implement that change.

I firmly hold to the belief that a large reason (perhaps the largest reason) for the cultural decay previously addressed by Mr. Berkowitz is the fact that so many of our nation’s adults do not have a job.  I don’t say this to regurgitate the arguments about the nanny-state dependence that has grown so dramatically under this president and his policies; but rather to state the simple fact that a paycheck is one single thing in life that can help to build personal esteem and encourage people to reach for a better life.  I have been unemployed in my life and the feeling of helplessness it engenders is crippling.  It eats away at your feeling of self-worth and engenders a frustration that is beyond words.  To see the needs of your family and, in spite of your best efforts, not be able to meet those needs is simply a purgatory of sorts for any man or woman with any gumption at all.  That is the other hole that has to be filled.  Forget the people who simply refuse to work and look for a free ride.  They exist; they will always exist; and their generational influence on their children must be addressed in order to break the cycle; but I do not believe that this type of person constitutes the majority of our unemployed.  As I have previously discussed, we as a society have failed our children.  Our government has equally failed our adults.  We must get back to the point where our economy generates sufficient opportunities for those who are seeking work and cannot find it.  Many will say that people who are out of work simply are not looking hard enough.  In a few cases, this is true.  However, in most cases, it is simply a misconception and incorrect.  I continue to believe that if we can somehow establish that first initial link between a paycheck and an unemployed adult individual; then we have gone a long ways towards helping to re-establish some pride and self-respect in our citizens that are out of work.  When it can be ignited, that pride and self-respect is contagious and can spread to a spouse, or to a child, or to a friend, or to a neighborhood, and can work to literally change the face of our culture.  But it all begins with teaching our children how to live; equipping them with the right tools to accomplish dreams that are pragmatic and obtainable, and creating a nation where opportunities exist that allows them to seek that dream. 

I fully realize these words that I write are far from original; they have been spoken so many times before by so very many well-intentioned people.  Many people still dedicate their lives to the challenge of trying to achieve these goals.  I readily acknowledge that the easiest part of this equation is recognizing the problem.  I do not have the solution.  But this much I do know; what we are doing is not working.  Look at the hysterical and mindless rant of the Yale student…and the reaction of the zombie-like administrator she is addressing.  Think about how a student can be in a college for eight years and still find time to go on a hunger strike in a campus revolt.  Think about the lowest workforce participation by our population since the second Great War.  Think about the vacuous looks you get from the kids (and adults) that populate our service industry from top to bottom.  Think about the drivel that our political characters constantly generate, in the full expectation that we the people will swallow them all…hook, line, and sinker.  It will take a better person than me to come up with the remedy for this malady and I am far from certain that I see that person on either the Republican or Democrat debate stage; but change had best be coming soon.  The Europeanization of America is in full swing and someone, somehow, needs to start the process of taking this country back.

Hey...Let's Talk About Kentucky Politics!

Hey…Let’s Talk About Kentucky Politics!  It is always interesting when I can get up in the morning and expect to see my home state mentioned on the national news.  There is always that gripping fear that the commentator will select the biggest idiot in the county for their piece and then hold them up as the average Kentuckian, but that doesn’t happen every time and hope springs eternal.  Kentucky held one of the few consequential elections in the nation yesterday and that fact was not lost on many news outlets.  For the first time in decades, Kentucky will have a Republican Governor and for the first time ever, it will have a black female as Lt. Governor.  As is the case in many political stories, this one is not exactly what it might appear to be on the surface; let’s look a bit closer.

Matt Bevin rolled into Kentucky politics by jumping up in Mitch McConnell’s face.  He calculated that McConnell’s tenuous relationship with the conservative wing of the Republican Party might translate into a conservative candidate upset in the last Republican Party Senatorial Primary.  He was wrong.  Bevin is a pretty sharp cookie, but he has a long ways to go to gain the political savvy of McConnell and he sure got schooled in that primary.  When Kentucky’s sitting Governor got term-limited and the seat opened up, the Republican Party had their candidate ready to go.  Sitting Ag Commissioner James Comer was groomed and ready to ascend to the governor’s chair.  But when a primary dust-up occurred in the Republican primary between Comer and Hal Heiner, they both got muddied up and Bevin slipped between them to steal the Republican nomination.  Truth be told, this was a huge disappointment to Kentucky Republican Party leadership.  They were very confident and comfortable with Comer and were frankly thrown for a loop when Bevin managed to upset their apple cart.  It is completely fair to characterize their support for Bevin as lukewarm and simply a case of supporting the only candidate standing.  Bevin benefited further from one of the weakest Democratic candidates in memory when Jack Conway was selected to be his opponent.  Liberal-leaning Jack Conway would fit in well in New York or Massachusetts, but was wwwaaaaayyy out of step with the average Kentuckian.  He was very liberal, an ardent supporter of gay marriage and Obamacare, and simply came across as a squishy child of privilege with no core principle.   His simple strategy was to highlight Bevin’s checkered past in the private sector and overwhelmingly carry his home county of Jefferson, which accounts for about 20 percent of Kentucky’s total vote totals.  Sometimes simple is best and in this case, this strategy made a lot of sense to a lot of people.  I think the weakness in this thinking was in overvaluing Conway, underestimating Bevin’s retail political skills, and not taking into account the average Kentuckian’s frustration with Obama and his administration.  Bevin effectively glued Conway to Obama and that was the kiss of death.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and Bevin’s decision to add Jenean Hampton as his Lt. Governor choice certainly looks smarter today than it did the day he made it.  At that time, it appeared to be a flailing move to polish up his diversity credentials and wrangle a vote or two; Ms. Hampton being an accomplished black female.  At the risk of giving Bevin too much credit, he might very well have selected Hampton in a stroke of genius.  Bevin could not win the governor’s race by losing Jefferson County in an overwhelming fashion.   By heavily advertising in Jefferson County, an urban county with a large minority segment, and prominently featuring Ms. Hampton and the issue of school choice, Bevin managed to hold Conway’s winning percentage to 58.  This is quite frankly an amazingly low number for a Democrat in Jefferson County and without doing the math, it had to contribute mightily to Bevin’s ultimate victory.  Although the Lt. Governor’s slot in Kentucky government is largely irrelevant, it is simply marvelous that we have selected an apparently qualified, minority, female candidate to serve in that capacity.  Here is hoping she meets with great success in the future.  I find it very interesting that this morning’s (the day after the election) mainstream media broadcasts hardly mention Ms. Hampton and her win.   I suppose a black female who happens to be conservative isn’t really black and female after all.

Republicans in general, both in Kentucky and nationally, should be very careful in their celebration of this win.  I would venture to say that fully one out of every four votes that Bevin received was an anti-Conway vote rather than a pro-Bevin vote.  The Republican Party, both local and national, was extremely reluctant to support Bevin and without the late, generous support of the Republican Governor’s Association, Bevin might not have won this race.  Still smarting from his primary confrontation with Bevin, McConnell was very late to the Bevin party and only at the last minute did he appear publicly with the candidate.  As the old saying goes…victory has a thousand fathers and defeat is an orphan.  Today the Republicans joyously celebrate their sweeping Kentucky election wins.  They might want to pause a bit.  If things go as they might, the Republicans in Kentucky might very well seize full control of the state legislature next year; if that happens, the sitting Kentucky Governor will be in position to implement sweeping changes on this state’s landscape.  A strong case can be made that Matt Bevin is an east coast, Tea Party version of Bill Clinton/Donald Trump and nothing more than an opportunistic interloper into Kentucky politics.  He certainly has no debt to pay to the Kentucky Republican Party, given their tepid support during this campaign.  Although I celebrate Ms. Hampton’s selection, she too is not native to Kentucky and it is yet to be determined if her political instincts are rooted in Kentucky conservatism or Detroit populism.    If, in fact, the Republicans gain control of the state legislature next year, the performance and record of this new governor will have a lasting impact on the public’s perception of the Republican Party in Kentucky.  I expect that many Kentucky Republican leaders are asking themselves this question this morning: “Have we put a fox in charge of the hen house?”