Buyer’s Remorse and War Poker

This Whisteblower deal with President Trump’s call to the Ukraine is odd in a number of ways.  Time will reveal all mysteries, but on the surface…this appears to be another feeble Democratic/Media attempt to fabricate a Trump scandal.  However, if we choose to peek below the surface a bit, there may be something a bit more Machiavellian going on. 

The Democratic Establishment, much like the Republican Establishment in past elections, had pretty much decided on its best chance to retire Donald Trump.  All things considered, they figured that after beating Trump up with a thousand small and superficial scandal cuts, Joe Biden might look pretty good to the American voter.  His past relationship (awkward as it is) with Obama, his resume of life-long political residency, his good ole boy/aw schucks patina, and his name recognition all combined to give him a rather glowing recommendation as the next Democratic presidential nominee.  I suppose the Democrats simply assumed that he had been around Obama long enough to have gained the One’s gift; the gift of simply ignoring one’s own lies, deceits, and corruption and proceeding as if none of it had ever happened (self-delusion).  Needless to say, that particular skill (or vice) did not rub off on Biden.

Given the apparent weakness of this Whistleblower episode and the likely deep-state origins from which it arose, one would have to believe that the Democratic establishment knew of it well before its public disclosure.  The public announcement timeline associated with Representative Schiff and the usual media suspects indicate that once again, the roll-out of this little political production was choreographed.  But perhaps there is a larger question in play here.  If this accusation against Trump is such thin gruel, why is it being sprung at this particular moment in time?  Could it be planned as a distraction from the imminent release of IG Horowitz’s report and all its damning potential for Democrats?  Could it simply be the next in a line (following bogus obstruction) of political accusations being hurled at Trump in order to keep him on the defensive and provide him ample opportunity to self-implode?  Could it be a preliminary strike by the Clinton Camp in anticipation of further legal action against their possible legal transgressions surrounding her questionable tenure as Secretary of State?  Could it be Biden’s attempt (similar to Warren’s apology to the Indian Nation) at damage control for the inevitable discussion of his and his son’s Ukraine past business dealings?  It could be none, any, or all of these motivations that is driving the sudden emergence of this little dust-up.  Or, it just might be the case that the Democratic Establishment is having some second thoughts, some buyer’s remorse, about placing all of their chips on a Biden for President 2020 effort.  It could be that they are finally realizing that old Slow Joe is not quite at the top of his game any longer; that his game was never really that sharp anyway; and they may have made a colossal error in assuming he would look really attractive in comparison to President Trump.  Without Biden’s acquiescence to self-withdrawing from the nomination race, the Democratic leadership was pretty much stuck with their poor bet.  Might it be the case that the false indignation surrounding Trump’s Ukraine phone call was simply a straw man used as an excuse to resurrect the Joe and Beau Biden Ukraine business dealings?  Are we watching the Democrats sabotage their own chosen political savior?  Time will tell; but this would indeed be a cold and ruthless method of retracting a poor wager and throwing open the field once again.

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Several posts back, I wrote a piece entitled http://centerlineright.blogspot.com/2019/01/trump-takes-road-less-traveled.html .  In that post, I celebrated President Trump’s non-interventionist tendencies in foreign policy; specifically in the military sense.  The recent debate surrounding the alleged Iranian-sponsored attack on the Saudi oil facilities has once again highlighted this aspect of Trump’s international inclinations.  As I did before, I once again applaud Trump’s refusal to orchestrate a knee-jerk military response to this blatant act of aggression against Saudi Arabia.  Although (based on media reports) American intelligence seems assured that Iran was the source of these attacks; the U.S. response has been deliberate and thoughtful.  Accepting the fact that this could change at any moment, I find it absolutely refreshing that President Trump is not inflaming the situation with his usual rhetorical bombasts and is instead proceeding to build a case with our allies and the United Nations to determine an appropriate response.  This is the second situation of this type that the President has faced and his instincts are promising.

There can be no doubt that in this particular game of global military poker, the United States holds the top cards and the most powerful hand.  Given the absolute futility that the Middle East has visited upon past presidential administrations from both political parties, it is astoundingly reassuring to see one that is taking a slow and cautious approach to this recent dilemma.  The past military bluster that has occurred (oftentimes with the best of intentions) regarding the Middle East has tallied a monstrous expense of human misery, international political intrigue, and an overall poor perception of our nation and its noble efforts to establish peace and dignity in the region.  When you hold the best hand at the table, there is no need for haste.  There is no need for bluff or bluster.  There is no need to poke or prod the other players.  And certainly (I sure hope Trump can remain cognizant of this), there is no need to escalate inflammatory rhetoric.  Patience exhibited through recognized strength is the most powerful military weapon America currently possesses. 

If the application of military action becomes a necessary step in this process, so be it.  But let us arrive at that conclusion in a thoughtful and pragmatic fashion; taking into full account the risks and human costs associated with such behavior.  Many of the political analysts in the media are stating that a kinetic military response to this unprovoked attack on the world’s energy reserves is essential to maintaining the global economy and tamping down the rogue terrorists in the Middle East.  They might be correct and, if so, then that response will be delivered.  All we can ask is that if delivered, it be a well-conceived and decisive operation commensurate with its provocation and is sufficiently adequate to effectively limit its repeated use in the future.