Tuesday, November 5 will be Election Day in America. If you are like me, it cannot come soon enough. So many aspects of our society and culture have demeaned themselves in the run-up to this election and it is truly a failing on the part of both national parties to offer us the choices we have for president. But…it is what it is. We will have two names on the ballot for president. We must pick one or the other. How will that play out?
If
you want to poll shop, you can pretty much find one that will support your
opinion…whatever that opinion might be. Taking an overall view of the polls, the
inescapable conclusion is that the race is very close. To me, taking into account all the news from
varied sources that I review, there is a modest but tangible shift taking place
that favors the Trump campaign. In order
to be significant, this perceived shift will have to continue for weeks…not
days. But for what it is worth, I believe
we have passed the days standard and have moved into the weeks category. I think
the shift is real; I think the shift is significant; and if the Harris campaign
cannot come up with something dramatic to alter the direction of the shift…I
believe the shift will ultimately result in Donald Trump winning the
presidential race. Why do I think
this?
When
a person is asked to respond to a poll question, there is a myriad of
considerations to think about when assigning credibility to that poll. When
was the poll conducted? What are the internal workings of the
poll? Who is sponsoring the poll? Who is releasing the poll results? Precisely how
are the questions presented in the poll?
All of these aspects impact the results of the poll and…the plain and
simple fact is that if a pollster is so inclined and adequately equipped, they
can pretty much deliver whatever poll results the sponsor desires. So at the end of the day, we are left with
deciding for ourselves whether or not the poll is credible or not; knowing all the while that it could be in
either category.
We
are pretty much faced with two options.
Option one is to research the pollsters, think for ourselves, and decide
who is worthy of our attention. Most of
us are simply not equipped to make that judgment. Option two is to rely on a credible source
that supposes to select a composite group of reliable polls and generates an
overall average based on the composite results.
The best example of option two is the Real Clear Politics poll found
here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
. Of course, you must decide for yourself whether or not the folks at Real Clear
Politics are straight up about the averaging process.
Back
to the question: Why do I think this? Any person who replies to a pollster and
indicates that they will vote for Trump
is, in my opinion, highly reliable. There is simply not much upside to saying
this if you do not truly feel this way.
Therefore, Trump’s numbers in the polls represent a reliable floor. That is of course, assuming they go to the
polls and actually vote. A person who
responds to a pollster with Harris vote
likelihood may break one of three ways.
One group may truly be decided and are therefore a reliable Harris vote. The
second group may be saying Harris is their vote out of loyalty to the Democrat Party and they are still trying to
decide if that loyalty is strong enough to convince them to vote for
Harris. They would never want to take the chance that someone might consider
them Trump votes…even if that possibility exists. Some of these will vote for Harris and some
of these will vote for Trump. The third
group is people who hate Trump so
viscerally that having already decided they could never vote for Trump, they are
still struggling with the choice of either voting for the less than desirable Democrat
candidate Harris or…simply staying at home and
not voting at all. If these
assumptions about Harris poll responses are correct, then her poll figures do
not represent a true floor; the actual floor would be significantly lower due
to the existence of the group two and three Harris voters I have mentioned.
My
point is this: If the polls were dead
even, then Trump is locked in with his half and will peel off part of Harris’s
half. Harris’s half is not locked in and
will fall below 50 percent when the peeling commences; effectively transferring
a voter gain to Trump. Not perfectly so, but rather like a zero sum game. The result of
this equation is that Trump’s ceiling is much higher than that of Harris and if
Trump can achieve and maintain a poll level of 48-49 percent, he is in an
excellent position to win. In my humble
opinion, Trump's floor is locked in and growing on a daily basis. Harris’s floor is falling on a daily
basis. If this shift continues unabated, Donald Trump will be the next
president.
If
you track both of the presidential candidates on a regular basis, you should have
arrived at a couple of conclusions. One
is that the Donald Trump running for president today is the same Donald Trump
that served as president before. Good or
bad…Trump is gonna be Trump. Two is that regardless of what her campaign
might be saying, Kamala Harris is no
change agent and will be a simple and straightforward continuation of the
Biden/Harris Administration. They will simply change the sign at the entrance of the tent. If you
read the links below, you will not only find compelling evidence of this, but
you will hear her actual words verifying this fact. Therefore, the choice is simple. Do you want an America and world as it
existed under four years of a Donald Trump presidency (sans Covid)…or do you want a continuation of what we have
experienced under the last three years and ten months of the Biden/Harris
Administration?
You really do not need a media talking head to answer this question for you. You do not need to ask your neighbor, your friend, or your parents. You do not have to read or scour the internet (ESP blogs like this one!) and delve into research to help you with this choice. Just find yourself a quiet place, sit down, relax, and then reflect on how things were then and how things are now.
OK...having climbed out on that narrow limb and exposed myself for the fool that I am…let us move on the news of the day…the way things are now.
All things about the Economy...
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/public-sector-booms.php
https://reason.com/2024/10/04/federal-buy-american-rules-cost-over-100000-per-job-created/
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/jobless-claims-jump-highest-level-more-year
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-problem-of-rising-interest-payments-on-the-debt/
All things about Education…
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/white-house/3175811/biden-student-loan-plan-back-on/
https://amgreatness.com/2024/10/04/now-its-time-to-eliminate-tenure/
https://amgreatness.com/2024/10/02/classical-v-unclassical-curricula/
https://reason.com/2024/10/07/act-scores-are-down-grades-are-up-somethings-fishy/
https://www.jamesgmartin.center/2024/10/universities-are-doing-education-badly/
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-debacle-of-urban-public-schools/
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-latest-college-fad-belonging/
All things Foreign Policy and Global Conflicts…
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/one-year-later-remember-the-hostages/
https://reason.com/2024/10/07/october-7-offered-a-stark-choice-between-good-and-evil/
https://www.thefp.com/p/a-year-of-revelations-702
https://amgreatness.com/2024/10/10/try-a-little-honesty-about-israel-2/
All things Immigration Policy…
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/immigration-by-the-numbers.php
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/the-border-fiasco-northern-edition.php
All things Healthcare…
https://americanmind.org/salvo/can-healthcare-futures-save-healthcares-future/
All things Campaign 2024…
http://jewishworldreview.com/michael/barone100724.php3
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/daily-memo/3172919/vice-president-debate-amid-chaos/
https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/10/01/fact-checking-claims-made-in-vance-walz-debate/
https://johnkassnews.com/walz-im-a-knucklehead-yes-sir-governor/
https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/10/harris-hits-a-walz/
https://amgreatness.com/2024/10/05/jd-vance-abortion-and-the-long-march/
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-basement-campaign-isnt-going-to-cut-it/
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-democrats-anxiety-vibe-shift-is-here/
https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/10/the-federalists-2024-battleground-state-elections-guide/
https://lawliberty.org/the-progressive-threat-to-constitutionalism/
https://americanmind.org/salvo/burdened-by-america-as-it-has-been/
All things Biden/Harris/Walz…
https://nypost.com/2024/10/09/opinion/kamala-harris-has-proven-she-is-just-joe-biden-2-0/
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/the-same-page.php
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/stop-making-sense-kamala-harris-edition.php
https://reason.com/2024/10/05/flip-flopping-toward-freedom/
https://reason.com/2024/10/08/is-kamala-harris-really-a-yimby/
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/another-knucklehead-move-by-walz.php
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/04/politics/walz-audits-fraud-accountability-invs/index.html
All things Biden/Harris Administration Incompetence…
https://americanmind.org/salvo/forgotten-america-in-crisis/
“This” is how the Biden/Harris
Administration rewards incompetence: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/white-house-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-promoted-to-senior-adviser-exclusive/ar-AA1rPnuO?ocid=mailsignout&pc=U591&cvid=ed3d9e67a2014969c024f1891d50f3b0&ei=139
“This” is what qualifies you to be
a SENIOR ADVISOR TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES under the Biden/Harris
Administration: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karine_Jean-Pierre
“Incompetence” extends to the
mainstream media also: https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/02/as-appalachians-languish-cbs-moderators-minimize-deadly-hurricane-helene-with-climate-change-question/
Speaking of CBS…All things Mainstream Media…
https://www.thefp.com/p/cbs-marks-october-7-by-admonishing-tony-dokoupil
https://reason.com/2024/10/10/cbs-tony-dokoupil-ta-nehisi-coates-israel/
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/10/notes-on-coates.php
And finally…two sad commentaries on our nation today…
https://amgreatness.com/2024/10/07/we-are-in-need-of-renaissance-people/
