Conservative Euphoria May Lead to Disillusion.

Like any political clique or faction, Republican Conservatives see the world through a glass darkly; they tend to evaluate realities based on their own ideals and never quite see the entire picture clearly.  This is as it should be; but the key to that particular philosophy enduring over time lies in its ability to adhere to non-negotiable principles that don’t totally exclude those who do not agree while compromising on practices that will lead to an overt influence of their thinking on everyday life.  Republican Conservatives were jubilant when Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton for the Presidency in 2016.  The question is: How much of that joy derived from severing the liberal path that Obama had placed this government on coupled with the defeat of his ideological successor versus the prospect of simply having a Republican President in the person of Donald Trump?  I believe that, unfortunately for those Conservative Republicans, the initial joy came from the latter; but it will be the former that fosters in huge disappointment.

Most people will hold Ronald Reagan out as the iconic Conservative.  He was a converted Democrat.  Closer to the point, he adhered to many conservative strategies, but on occasion would steer towards a moderate position.  George W. Bush looked like a Conservative, talked like a Conservative, reveled in the celebration of Conservatism, but he was a moderate …up to the point of renaming his adopted philosophy as Compassionate Conservatism.  I will always believe that the common trait that made John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan remarkable Presidents was their political courage.  Clearly, both were astute politicians and did a very effective job of reading the partisan tea leaves.  They then parlayed their reads into political successes.  But in both cases, these men were driven by personal convictions that they upheld and practiced at the peril of their political careers.  George W. Bush had a bit of this in him and, to a far lesser degree, Obama showed brief flashes of this behavior.  This form of exposing one’s true inner feelings is the way that most voters decide where to place their allegiance.  They try to read the real person behind the political mask.  Our President does not appear to be a man driven primarily by strong core convictions; but more so by pragmatic calculation seasoned with a strong dose of political consideration. 

Ronald Reagan has been so politically over-analyzed and his Presidency is sufficiently removed so as to limit the benefit of his comparison to Trump.  However, I find a comparison of Trump and Bush 43 beneficial.  Trump is a product of a New York liberal culture and society.  He was raised a Democrat and was, in fact, a practicing Democrat for most of his adult life.  And while his business experience has driven him to embrace many conservative principles in the realm of finance, his upbringing has molded him into a more moderate or even liberal stance in non-fiscal affairs.  Bush 43 is quite the opposite.  Any objective examination of his Presidency will show that he ran the fiscal affairs of our government in a very liberal fashion; spending tax dollars like a drunken sailor and piling on layer after layer of new bureaucracy.  But the way George W. Bush handled social civic matters revealed a truly conservative nature.  In the case of each man, Conservative Republicans found (and will continue to find) much to celebrate and much to disappoint. 

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Like many people in this country who voted, Conservative Republicans rejoiced when Hillary Clinton was defeated.  A victory for her would have led this nation down a path of corruption and policy that likely would have dramatically diminished our great nation for generations to come.  If we citizens are forced to choose a President who does not fully represent our individual personal beliefs, I firmly believe that most Independents and Moderates in each party will select the candidate who bends conservative on fiscal matters and moderate on social matters.  I think that the residual conservative animus towards Bush 43 leads back to this type of logic; even though he was a faithful conservative on social issues, he wandered far off the conservative path on fiscal affairs.  So we have in Trump a fiscal agent who should satisfy the spending desires of Conservatives; but find that the motivation for those habits lies in the principles of business and not in the tenants of Conservatism. 

It is yet to be seen what type of President we will have in Donald Trump.  But from a personal standpoint, I see indications in the ongoing health care debate, tax reform discussion, immigration argument, and budget talks that lead me to believe that the moderate-to-liberal influence in President Trump’s character will be more pronounced in social aspects of governing as his Administration progresses.  And as we move further away from the joy of removing the Clintons from their perch of political influence, the reality of a not-so-conservative President Trump is going to cause a lot of heartburn in the circles of Republican Conservatism.  But even more interesting will be watching the dynamic of a growing conservative disenchantment with Trump as his migration towards a moderate social policy evolves, simultaneously enhancing his standing with non-ideological voters.   Trump appears to be heading towards a fiscally-thrift Presidency that takes either a hands-off or state’s rights approach to the hot button social issues of the day.  The very policy positions that are anathema to Conservatives could make him attractive to many Moderates.  A fiscal conservative with a libertarian social bent might disillusion the Republican Right, but that formula might very well suit the majority of American voters to a tee. 

If he can pull off the truly challenging feat of successfully getting legislation through Congress, he could be in for a long and productive tenure in the White House; assuming, of course, that his erratic personal tendencies do not implode his Presidency.  The over-riding and long-term question of consequence for the Republican Party is whether or not a fiscally-conservative President with moderate social tendencies is pure enough to satisfy the true believers?  If the answer is NO, then the Republicans may be condemned to a position of occasional rule with chronic splintering among its various factions.  If the answer is YES, then the Republicans may have found a winning political formula for future elections and Conservatives may begin to deliberately chip away at our bloated and overly intrusive federal government.