Waiting for the Donkey to Pivot

No, this is not a dissertation on equestrian skills.  It is not intended to be constructive on how to guard livestock from four-legged predators.  Don’t read this piece expecting instructions on how to pack up your gear to go up or down that big hill.  Rather, this is an alert to an event that is likely to happen in the near future and will significantly impact the Presidential election in 2020.  I am talking about the biggest shakedown event in the 2020 Democratic Presidential primary; the strategic move to the middle.

Although we are light years from determining exactly which Democrat will oppose President Trump in his quest for a second term; the picture is beginning to come into focus.  At this point, it appears that four candidates have a reasonable expectation of winning the Democratic nomination.   Those four candidates are Biden, Warren, Sanders, and Harris.  Can one of the other Democratic candidates win the nomination?  Yes…of course they could.  But barring some type of seismic event in the Democratic primary race; these are the four candidates with the best chances of gaining their party’s top slot. 

Another clarifying development in the Democratic primary race is the fact that even though Biden has performed at nothing more than a moderate level in his campaigning and debating; he still enjoys a comfortable lead over his nearest competitors.  Several news items have been written about this fact, with most of them having titles like Average is Good Enough.  This is likely a reflection of the fact that it is a fairly unimpressive group of candidates vying for the nomination.  Even though his propensity for inserting his foot into his mouth is overwhelming; as long as Biden can continue to breathe and not commit some act of political hara-kiri, his resume might well carry him to the Democratic nomination for president.

But there may be an event just short of hara-kiri forthcoming that could place Biden’s strategy for victory in peril.  Bernie Sanders is an avowed socialist and he is proud of it.  He will live or he will die with his principles, such as they are.  He can’t change his stripes and shows no apparent interest in doing so.  Warren and Harris, however, are a bit more prone to lean with the wind and do not carry a life-long dedication to socialist dogma.  If either of these ladies, Warren in particular, was to close the polling gap significantly between herself and Biden and if the field is effectively narrowed down to a handful of candidates; then the ex-Vice President should be wary of the pivot.  And now you ask…What pivot?

Each Party has settled comfortably into a pattern where its presidential primary candidates mainly cater to the extreme factions of their voters.  The ruling axiom seems to be that you can do nothing if you do not first acquire the nomination; so it’s acceptable to sell out and pander to the max in order to win the primary. This has pushed past Republican candidates (Mitt Romney, Donald Trump) to be far more conservative in the primaries than comfort allows and it has forced most all of the 2020 Democratic candidates to espouse the looney tunes philosophy of the liberal left agenda being parroted by the Squad.  Following their capture of the party nomination, the winning Democratic candidate will likely gravitate strategically towards the center in an effort to expand their potential voter base.  When considering this development, it seems that Joe Biden’s primary weakness is in fact Joe Biden’s general election strength.  With a political lifetime of moderate Democratic positions to defend, it is impractical for Biden to suddenly embrace the radical policies of the far left.  The apparent hypocrisy that would be clearly evident in such a maneuver might deal a death knell to his candidacy.  Instead, he has run as a Democratic moderate and as things turn out, he is the only viable Democratic moderate in the entire primary field.  I submit to you that this is the fundamental reason that Biden has retained his polling lead for the nomination; in spite of his fumbles and mumbles.  It’s not that Joe’s performance has been that impressive (it has not); it’s just that most Democratic voters understand that the only chance they have of defeating Trump is to nominate a moderate. 

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But what happens if the race tightens and Warren closes to within a handful of points in the polls?  What happens if developments go even further and it becomes clear that the race for the nomination is down to just two candidates, Biden and Warren?  Do you think that Warren will continue to preach the exclusive gospel of the Green New Deal and Open Borders?  Will she continue to propose National Gun Confiscation or Free College for All?  Will she even broach the subject of Reparations?  I don’t think so.  Rather, she will attempt to subtlety and carefully bend towards the center on her policy proposals.  While not totally abandoning the progressive escort that brought her to the dance; she will make several flirtatious overtures to the more moderate voters in the Democratic Party.  She will attempt to expand her potential voter base while preserving her most ardent core constituency. 

If this turns out to be the case; then the million dollar question will be: Who can pivot best?  Can Joe Biden reach leftward from the center and pull in voters from the Warren or Sanders camps?  Will that be such a transparent sellout that it will cost him as much as he gains?  It might very well be the case that Elizabeth Warren can more effectively pivot to the center from the left and couple some form of Blue Dog Pragmatism with her progressive instincts.  It would be a deft and delicate balance to maintain for Warren; but she has demonstrated both the potential (thus far) to meet this organizational challenge and the political instincts to accomplish such a plan.  I will say this with no reservation: If I close my eyes and try to visualize Warren and Biden alone on the debate stage; Warren wins every time. 

When it gets down to two, maybe three, candidates standing for the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination and the party of Barack Obama has to decide who has the best chance of taking down Trump…will average be good enough to carry the day?  I can’t speak for you, but I would find a Trump/Warren contest far more entertaining than a Trump/Biden race.  A debate between The Donald and Fauxahontas would be nothing short of delicious.  And don’t you think that a Trump/Warren choice would be more representative of the political fracturing that is now dividing our nation?  Bernie or Kamala may upset the apple cart, close in a rush, and swipe the Democratic nomination out of nowhere.  And of course, Joe Biden has a lot of traditional support behind him and is currently sitting on a comfortable lead; but does he really inspire the kind of confidence and loyalty that will take Democrats to a necessary level of real enthusiasm?  If you have to lay down a bet today…you might want to think about Elizabeth Warren, Democrat for President.