Thursday, October 25, 2012

“1980 In Slow Motion.”  That is a quote I read today from some professional pundit; I find it to be quite accurate.  The 2012 presidential race seems to be wrapping up and barring any totally unexpected event from left field, the cake would appear to be baked.  There is a momentum that has been gathering for the Romney campaign since the first debate and even though it has ebbed a bit here and there, it has nonetheless continued unabated and shows no sign of letting up.  It appears to be sweeping not only the nation, but more importantly the acclaimed swing states.  When I look at the campaign pictures on the internet and television, I am struck by the images of President Obama.  He seems to be like the struggling, frustrated, and tiring man trying to hold back the overwhelming weight that threatens to crush him.  The harder he struggles to combat it, the more frantic he becomes and the more desperate he appears.  Romney is increasingly more energetic and relaxed.  As we all know, both campaigns have the best pollsters in the business and have a very good idea where this whole deal is headed.
As I had written a few blogs back, the recognition is slowing sinking in that Ohio is quite possibly more essential to Obama than it is to Romney.  The current state of play begs the question: What if Romney now wins Ohio?  If, in fact, Romney wins Ohio, then it is quite likely that he will also win Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (perhaps Michigan as well?).  Rather than the popular notion of a “razor thin” victory for one side or the other, we could very well be looking at a big win for Romney.  It is only reasonable to expect that if that big win occurs, then the close Senate races that will determine control of that body will tilt Republican.  Romney might very well be coming into office in January of 2013 with Republican control in the House and the Senate, and a big elector count, thus setting the stage for some very significant first-term legislation.
On the other hand, if Obama prevails in what would likely be a narrow electoral victory, he will be facing, at best, a Republican House and a Senate with a small Democrat majority; a perfect formula for gridlock and executive action adventures.  This same scenario might apply to Romney if he squeaks out a win and is unable to extend sufficient coattails to the Republican Senate candidates engaged in competitive races.  Either way, it is difficult to see how continuing tensions between our Legislative branch and our Executive branch bode well for dealing with the major issues facing our nation; issues such as the expiring Bush tax cuts, the continuing deficit and debt problem, immigration reform, and the Middle East tinderbox. 
If you look at the possible outcomes based solely on an “ability to govern” basis, I submit that the preferable outcome is a big Romney win.  Romney may not be the panacea that his campaign makes him out to be, but there is little doubt that his first two years in office will give the American voting public a glimpse of what Romney and Republican philosophies can or cannot do for the country and come November of 2014 and 2016, establish a good basis for how we would like to go forward.

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