Future Landscaping: Time to Plant Another Bush?

Future Landscaping: Time to Plant Another Bush?  One of the more popular exercises in presidential politics lately is gauging exactly how serious Jeb Bush is about seeking the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.  He seems to have fired the starting pistol for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.  Now I have no intellectual foundation from which to prognosticate major party nominees.  I don’t read tea leaves too well at all and have no friends in high places that can feed me reliable tidbits of information.  Not being a registered Republican, Jeb would not be my first choice as a nominee.  But I will venture a comment or two regarding Jeb’s prospects…if he decides to pull the trigger.

Even though most consider it a foregone conclusion, I am still not wholly convinced that Hillary Clinton will pursue the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.  If she does not, it will get just as interesting on the left side of the aisle as it will likely be on the right.  But for the sake of discussion, let us assume that Hillary runs for and claims said Democratic nomination.  We now have a Democratic nominee who wears couch covers as dresses, has a face on two sides of her head to address the moderate and left wings of her party, will be 69 years old (and bless her heart, she looks every day of it) the day she takes office if she is successful, and has more baggage to tote into a campaign than the New York Giants (her adopted Senate state) could manage.  Oh...did I mention that the woman has the personality of a door knob and occasionally goes all "Oliver Stone" with her conspiracy theories?  One last point: I do not believe that running as the first female president will have quite the luster as running as the first black president.  The Democrats have gotten just about all of the mileage out of their “War on Women” that is possible and women simply will not vote as monolithic for one of their own as black Americans have.

I readily concede the folly of trying to predict a Republican nominee from the lengthy list of possible candidates.  But there are some points to be made in favor of Jeb Bush.  Unless the national political climate changes dramatically in the next two years, Obama will not be leaving office as a very popular president, many folks will still harbor some buyer’s remorse, and polls be damned…many moderates of all stripes will still prefer W over O in a comparison contest.  After Obama’s circus vacates WDC, I have to believe that many folks will be looking for and will welcome some degree of competency and accomplishment in their candidate and will take a favorable view of a successful ex-governor.  

 

I will venture to say that with the specter of "W and Bill's" ghosts hovering around each campaign, it will pretty much be a political wash.  Will the right wing of the Republican Party prevent Jeb from acquiring the nomination?  For all of the rap about him not being conservative enough, the fact is that his record shows he is quite conservative in all but two major areas of governing: immigration reform and common core education.  Whether or not you agree with his stance on either subject, they are without a doubt issues that need discussing and merit more than one sensible approach.  In other words, if he can sell his positions on each as “reasonable”, I see no problem with him winning over a significant number of Republican votes in the primary season.  Additionally, a close examination of his record will show that he is very much a fiscal conservative; much more so than his brother.  This will appeal not only to many Republican primary voters but to many Independents and moderate Democrats who prefer a “social moderate/fiscal conservative”.  

 

Say what you will about the Romney and Jeb comparisons, but I do not recall Mitt ever telling the right wing to back up and rethink their positions on major issues; I like the spunk Jeb has shown in doing just that.   Some in the liberal press have already begun to spend ink on publicizing how well Jeb has done in recent years with his “off shore “investments.  Two points here: Does anyone really think that between “Wall Street Connections”, “Pork Belly Futures”, and “Whitewater” that Hillary wants the debate to head down that alley?   After watching the media’s “carnival of the absurd” that accompanied Romney and his wealth, I marvel at the fact that no one mentions that Republican presidents tend to come into office wealthy, while Democratic presidents tend to acquire their wealth while in office and afterwards.  Let me think….wasn’t it Hillary that said they came into the White House broke?

Now Jeb might not be my choice for the Republican nomination and he may not even be in the running when the contest becomes serious, but I will predict this here and now: If the 2016 presidential race is between Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush, not only will Jeb Bush be our next president; but he will also come into office with a Republican Senate and House.