The Thumb on the Scales.

The Thumb on the Scales.  Propaganda is as much a matter of what is left out, as of what is actually said.  Those words of George Orwell were prophetic when spoken long ago and have become part and parcel of modern journalism.   As recently as two decades ago, I could have listed at least three-to-five newspapers or magazines that I thought did a reasonably professional and non-biased job of covering the news; now I cannot name one.  Every single media outlet I am familiar with has an agenda, right or left, and they all pursue them shamelessly.  The only hope a regular Joe with a limited amount of time and resource for self-informing to get a balanced picture of today’s world is to make certain their media diet consists of healthy portions representing varied and opposing opinions.  This is especially important (and the lack of it blatantly obvious) with our high school and college youth and our low-information adult citizens.  For whatever personal reasons, they latch onto a monolithic media source, be it right or be it left, and ease into the notion that all they receive from this source is the gospel and sufficient to make important and sweeping decisions about our world.  In fact, Orwell’s words of warning have been lost in the media shuffle and today’s media litmus test is not so much whether the reported facts are accurate, but whether or not all of the pertinent facts are presented.  It has become accepted practice for our media sources to routinely keep a thumb on the scales.   Legal liability determines the amount of truth in the report; personal agenda determines the number and selection of facts in the report. 

Two recent examples of this phenomenon that I find amusing is the way both the right-centric media and the left-centric media have covered the candidacy of Trump.  Fox News has simply been enthralled with Trump; featuring him pretty much as a regular on O’Reilly.  For all the barbs that Bill O throws towards CNN; he has been just as shameless in his donation of free air time to the Donald.   I’m not sure, but I think Fox has been around Obama so much that that have been affected with his favorite pastime; that of looking at yourself in the mirror and being excessively impressed.  I’m not sure why they are choosing to cover all of the flash and flicker of Trump and give him a pass on his record, but there it is.  Here lately, they have begun to demonstrate awareness that Trump does, in fact, have a record that bears examination; they are just pretty damn late to the party.

As for the left, I don’t think there is any question as to motivation for their kid glove coverage of Trump.  Whether it be correct or not, they are openly salivating at the prospect of having Donald Trump as the 2016 Republican presidential candidate.  Donald Trump’s life record is a veritable mine field of controversy, but why cover that now?  Why would a liberal press who wants the weakest Republican candidate to win play their best cards against him now, when it might possibly lead to a stronger candidate obtaining the nomination?  Helping Trump skate to the nomination fits rather nicely in their plan to continue a liberal executive order into the next eight years.  If you will, contrast this Trump coverage with how Hillary is covered.  It is true that much of the liberal press has spent a significant amount of time and resource covering some of Clinton’s legal issues; such as the personal server, her email security, and the possible Clinton Foundation conflicts of interest.  But it is equally true that no reasonable person has ever given Sanders a chance in hell of beating Clinton out for the Democratic nomination.  All of that critical coverage is on the cheap.  It serves a dual purpose of putting it out there now in hopes of it fading away by the general election season; at some point you have to acknowledge it because it is so blatant; and it also gives them some cover to claim some degree of objectiveness.  Imagine, if you will, the media covering Trump with the same appetite evident in Clinton coverage?  If that were the case, would we just now, at this later (and therefore less consequential) date, be hearing about Trump Academy, illegal Trump Corp labor issues, and other various past Trump escapades? 

The promise of “the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth” is a very solemn oath; and it was once a very public goal and mantra of this nation’s journalistic community.  That oath has now morphed into “what is presented as truth, part of it being actually true, but clearly not all of the facts involved in the matter”.  Far more than any of us care to acknowledge, we are products of the information stimuli that bombards us each day.  We rush through our lives at breakneck speed, taking care of the essential tasks that pop up on our “ten feet ahead of us” radar, and soak up the news in the most efficient (but not necessarily effective) manners possible.  As is the case with our government, the American journalistic community is populated by youthful, idealistic, and agenda-driven individuals who profess high levels of professionalism but regularly display poor ethics, lack of recognition regarding their own limitations and weaknesses, and blind ambition.  These are the people that guide us in many of our daily and consequential decisions; how we choose to vote being one of them.  Elections have consequences.  We deserve the leaders that we elect.  We deserve the government they shape.  We all need to look for that thumb on the scales and when we recognize it, make an effort to find the story told by the thumb on the other side of the scales.

Outrunning the Bear.

Outrunning the Bear.  There is an old saying in rural America (at least in rural Kentucky) that goes along these lines: If you’re with a group of people in the woods and a bear gets after you, you don’t have to outrun the bear; you just have to outrun the slowest person in line.  I want to try and apply this analogy to the ongoing Republican Presidential Primary. 

First off, let’s look at some facts.  I really cannot figure out why the entire media community is in such a damned hurry to settle the Republican Primary.  Obviously, everyone has an agenda and those agendas run the gamut from the RNC being scared to death of having Trump as their nominee to the DNC wanting the process to end tomorrow with Trump as the nominee (both sides should be very careful about what they wish for).  But all of those folks in between…why do they want this thing over with?  Journalists make a living covering politics; why would they want to end this treasure trove of news stories sooner rather than later?  

Last night’s Republican debate in Texas was great stuff.  Regardless of your politics, you have to love the bare knuckles nature of that debate and the real glimpses it presented regarding the candidates.  Out of 2,472 total Republican Primary delegates, a candidate must amass 1,237 to gain the nomination.  Through March 15 (a full 18 days away; a lifetime in politics), a total of 1,517 delegates will have been awarded.  That number represents 61 percent of the total number of delegates.  In order to obtain the magic number of 1,237 by March 15, a single candidate must obtain 82 percent of the available delegates up to that date.  82 PERCENT!   Now Trump has clearly dominated the first four contests, but it has to be considered a stretch in anyone’s book to project him winning 82 PERCENT of the available delegates through March 15.  Within those primaries prior to March 15 are the home states of Cruz (Texas/155), Rubio (Florida/99), and Kasich (Ohio/66).  Now Trump might win one or even two of these three, but do you really think he will run the table?  In addition, there is a myriad of delegate allocation processes as we go from state to state; some winner take all and some with a variation of proportionality.  Bottom line: Will Trump accumulate 1,237 delegates by March 15?  I don’t think so.  Will he have a large lead in delegates by March 15?  That is possible.  What happens if he does not have 1.237 by March 15?  There will likely be one primary opponent that will compete with him for the remaining delegates to be allocated after March 15.  That number is 955, or a significant 39 percent of the total number of delegates.  Now I realize that politics is a strange and unusual business, but in what other competitive contest do you decide a winner when the game is not even two-thirds complete? 

And now…back to my analogy.  That group of folks in the woods being chased by the bear is running towards the cabin.  In this analogy, the cabin is the Republican Convention in July.  Rubio, Cruz, or even Kasich do not have to win every primary before March 15 or even have the largest number of committed delegates; they simply have to stay away from that perilous last position in line.  They have to stay in the game.  By my count, if after March 15 the Republican contest is winnowed down to two candidates, there is plenty of time and opportunity to have a spirited and open contest between two people.  And once again, there is always the possibility that we get to Cleveland in July and nobody has secured the delegate count necessary to claim the nomination.  Perhaps it is a product of the world we live in today that makes us all so anxious to end these contests early.  We all live so fast and our attention spans have shrunken dramatically.  But selecting a President is pretty serious business.  Selecting a successor to the sophomoric narcissist we have now had in the White House for seven plus years makes that choice even more critical.  Whether you are impressed with the sheer gravity of the decision or simply a great fan of political theater, it is in the best interest of all involved to back up a step or two, quit pushing quite so hard, quit jumping to conclusions and trying to be the first one to predict an accurate outcome, and simply let this deal play out.  As University of Kentucky basketball coach John Calipari has repeatedly told his rabid fan base on those occasions when he had great teams: Enjoy the ride.

Notes on Nevada D and South Carolina R.

Notes on Nevada D and South Carolina R.  Well, that was interesting.  The results of Saturday’s political events were not as revealing as were the analytics and aftermath.  Evangelicals going Trump, Bush dropping out, and Hillary continuing to squeak by…the hits just keep on coming in this mad, mad world of the 2016 Presidential Election Cycle.

First, the Democrats.  It is clear to anyone paying attention that barring a federal indictment, Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat’s nominee; by hook or crook, she will get the Democratic nomination. The media and the DNC are in the tank for her, she will find whatever funds are necessary to finance her campaign, and the delegate allocation system is pretty malleable (to her distinct advantage).  You think the Democratic race is close?  Not!  Clinton now has 502 delegates to Bernie’s 70.  As incredible as it is that a former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State is barely managing to publicly defeat a 74 year old avowed socialist, it is nonetheless reality and shows no signs of abatement.

Now, the Republicans.  It is equally astounding that at this point in the race, Bush has dropped out, Trump is the runaway leader, and Cruz and Rubio are fighting tooth and nail for a distant second place.  You would think that listening to a sampling of media responses; Trump is just a step or two away from coronation as the Republican candidate.  The fact is that he has only 61 of the 1237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.  By any stretch or interpretation, the Republican race has a long, long way to go before a decision is made.  With Bush now removed from the race and both Kasich and Carson rendered irrelevant, the attention is focusing down to a three-man contest between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz.  Very, very soon, we will be focusing on the numbers that count; that being the delegate count.  All of the polls and the pundits will become only so much noise and the mystery will be slowly revealed through the winding stretch of the American presidential primary landscape.  Here is what strikes me as interesting.  It is difficult to see any scenario where Trump will drop out of the race.  In fact, he will continue to nourish the possibility that he will mount an independent run if he is defeated in the Republican race.  Cruz continues to be flush with money, for the time being; and with Bush now out of the race and on the heels of his strong South Carolina showing, Rubio should have no trouble replenishing his campaign coffers.  I submit that it is not at all unreasonable to see the specter of an open Republican convention becoming a reality. 

Trump will not run out of money and his constituency, whatever it may be, seems to be pretty solid this far.  He is not going away.  Even though he continues to win with a plurality, he is winning nonetheless.  As long as Rubio and Cruz continue to split the non-Trump vote, the plurality game will continue to be successful for him.  It is equally clear that were Trump’s primary opposition to be distilled down to one candidate; he would likely find himself and his candidacy in jeopardy.  But what are the chances that he will soon be facing a single opponent?   Cruz is the darling of the hard conservative wing of the Republican Party.  If they have demonstrated nothing else, they have shown they are willing to take all manner of abuse and harm (even to the point of handicapping their party’s general election prospects) for the sake of perceived principle.  They are also blessed to have certain members with deep pockets.  Even if Cruz continues to finish third behind Trump and Rubio and even if his trailing gap expands, it is difficult for me to see him pulling out of this race before the July convention in Cleveland.  The table seemed to be set for a huge Cruz victory in South Carolina and the failure of that to materialize, I think, is more a product of Trump strength than of Cruz weakness.  But any way you cut it, South Carolina was a lost opportunity of Cruz.  The chance was there to pitch a spade full of dirt or two on Rubio’s effort and that opportunity is now passed.  Rubio was in a perilous position coming out of New Hampshire, but his strong finish in South Carolina appears to have righted his ship and he should be expected to carry his momentum into Nevada and the SEC Primary states.  My point is  this:  If neither Rubio or Cruz drop out, it is very conceivable that a continuation of a three-way delegate split up until the July convention could easily result in nobody acquiring the necessary delegate count of 1,237 in order to claim the nomination.  How crazy will that place in Cleveland be if you have the Trump circus, the Rubio establishment, and the Cruz zealots descending on it with all of their eyes on the nomination prize?  This thing could get real, real intriguing. 

As I have said before, I refuse to take Trump seriously.  I do not believe he will be the 2016 Republican nominee for President.  Imagine for a moment if he were not involved in this process.  Imagine on the left we have a spirited and principled debate between Clinton and Sanders for liberal governance and on the right, we have an equally spirited and principled debate between Rubio and Cruz about conservative governance.  My god, how refreshing that would be; talk about a teachable moment!  Instead, we have this incessant absurdity of static from an ego-maniacal, blustering buffoon who can afford to engage on a lavish ego trip with no motivation other than self-serving gamesmanship.  At some point in this process (and I suppose that point could be now), one must acknowledge the possibility that Trump could eventually be the Republican nominee.  If so, he might prove to be a reluctant alternative to Clinton or Sanders.  On the other hand, if the winds of this ridiculous presidential cycle continue to shift and swirl, and Hillary Clinton is indicted, Joe Biden might look like a pretty good choice as compared to Trump.

Follow postings on twitter #centerlineright.

Who Gets the Fallback Chair?

Who Gets the Fallback Chair?  It is a long and winding primary season for both political parties; but it is a symptom of today’s culture that the public wants a winner….like NOW.  Given that foolish and unnecessary urgency, the stakes for tonight’s South Carolina Republican Primary debate are very high indeed.

We all tend to forget that like something out of a science fiction movie, days in political lives are like years in human lives.  What seems certain today might very well seem outrageous two weeks from now.  Given those considerations, it appears to be boiling down to the point where there will be one fallback chair for each party.  Now the Democrats have cleared their deck, getting down to two remaining candidates.  If these two candidates should suddenly fall out of favor with the public, the Democrat’s primary system of autocratic party control will make it quite possible for a Biden or a Kerry to step onstage and occupy the fallback chair.  On the other hand, the Republican’s primary system is more or less on autopilot and for better or worse (from a Republican perspective), it will run its course and determine the party’s nominee.  The RNC obviously retains some influence and control over their process, but to a large extent, it is now a creature of its own volition.   Therefore, the big question that might actually be answered in the South Carolina Republican debate is: Who will sit in the fallback chair?

Now each party has two contender’s chairs.  These chairs are ergonomically-friendly, well padded, and come generously equipped with all manner of swivel and height adjustments; everything necessary to make the occupant ultra-competitive.  However, the fallback chair is more of the straight back variety with a slatted bottom and back.   It is likely not even made of oak; more likely white pine.  You can never be certain how stout it will be and how long it will last…will the slats break or will the joints come loose?  The occupants of the contender chairs don’t worry about the cost of maintenance; they simply experiment with different seating positions and let others worry about keeping the chair in top shape.  The one sitting in the fallback chair lives in constant fear of a severe chair malfunction and whether or not there will be sufficient funds to repair the chair in that case.  It is indeed a precarious position and has a limited shelf life.  The Democrats have a bit of an advantage when it comes to the fallback chair business inasmuch as their occupant does not even have to sit in it on the stage.  They can simply wait in the wings just in case an opportunity for sitting materializes.  The Republican must continually man the chair and absorb all the necessary time and expense required to maintain that presence.  That is the price you pay for an open and transparent primary.

It seems to be a foregone conclusion that Biden and Kerry are the ones waiting in the Democrat wings to seat themselves in the fallback chair…if that becomes necessary.  Who will occupy the Republican chair is a more open question.  If the South Carolina results show a clear and defined 1-2-3 finish for Trump, Cruz, and Rubio; then Marco will find himself in the fallback chair.  If Rubio can somehow manage a second place finish, he might even move up to a contender model.  On the other hand, if Marco falls back to a weak third place finish or even fourth behind Bush, he will likely relinquish his ownership of the fallback chair to Bush.  Plain and simple, Bush has an operation and bank account better suited to the precarious and expensive ownership of the fallback chair than does Rubio.  Even though there can only be one Republican fallback chair, it is essential that it continue to be occupied.  This American Presidential election process has just begun and there will be many, many surprises about all of the candidates involved.  If some of those surprises turn out to be unsavory and damaging, that fallback chair could quickly be traded in for a contender model; if it is still occupied, stable, and functional.  Although Hillary’s life appears to be an open book (except for the redacted and stonewalled chapters), there is much left to learn about Bernie, Trump, Cruz and Rubio. If the fallback chair can remain functional for a sufficient amount of time, hope will spring eternal for that seated individual that one of the contenders might just lean back too far in their elaborate chairs and tilt over backwards.

New Hampshire Primaries Notes.

New Hampshire Primaries Notes.  Good Lord Have Mercy…

·      New Hampshire just awarded their presidential primaries to a reality TV star and a socialist.  Who are these people and why in hell do the national parties let them have the first primaries in the nation?

·      Christie was like a NASCAR driver who is five laps down late in the race and takes out a top five car that was moving up.  So lame.

·      Republican National Committee…what the hell are you thinking?  Allowing ABC (and other MSM outlets, along with CNN) to broadcast Republican debates is just stupid.  Martha Raddatz didn’t want to ask questions; she wanted to debate Democrat talking points.  And then, when there was a break, Clinton crony George Stephanopoulos puts all the Democrat spin he can on the proceedings.  The RNC should set up their own debates, with their own moderators; fewer in number and on a regional basis, that by the way should be synchronized with a revised regional primary schedule.  Live stream the events and make them available to interested broadcasters; there will be no shortage of interested parties.  Let Republicans help Republicans decide who they want to represent Republicans.  Democrats should do the same.

·      Jeb Bush is pathetic.  He spends $35 million to finish fourth or fifth in New Hampshire and is giddy because he beats Rubio.  Meh.

·      Kudos to Cruz!  He spends $800 thousand for third place and walks away with a win and a show; not bad at all.

·      Is this Kasich’s fifteen minutes of New Hampshire fame?  Not easy to see him playing well in South Carolina, Nevada, and the SEC events.  Perhaps he cemented his VP bona fides; after all, a Republican does have to win in Ohio.

·      Rubio pays dearly for a minute or two of debate night brain lock.  He stood up post-New Hampshire and took responsibility like a man (just like Cruz and his ethanol moment in Iowa); that was admirable and took some cojones.  Will he learn anything from this episode and will he have time to recover from it?  Is it true that what don’t kill you makes you stronger?  Time will tell.

·      HRC is damaged goods; she is the empress with no clothes and everyone is looking…and cringing.  Can she put her train back on the tracks or is the clock ticking down to “Joe Time”?  

·      Has there ever been a campaign that is having more fun than the Sanders campaign?  It reminds me of those post-election scenes with the Clintons, the Gores, and Fleetwood Mac.  Man, those folks are having some good times and it just makes you want to sign up and start knocking on doors. 

·      Is it just me or is it getting harder and harder to watch the political talking heads on TV.  They are so full of themselves and their influence on our political system.  Is the day of responsible journalism over and are we now relegated to a future of partisan, arrogant, and agenda driven camera hacks?

On to South Carolina for the Republicans; 53 of 2,472 Republican delegates have been awarded.  It takes 1,237 to win the nomination.  The Democrats now head to Nevada, having awarded 68 of 4,051 delegates.  The madness continues.

Follow new posting announcements on Twitter at "centerlineright".

2016 Republicans and Their "Manfred Mann" Syndrome

2016 Republicans and Their “Manfred Mann” Syndrome.  I have spent a good deal of my limited value time pointing out the flaws of Hillary Clinton as a 2016 Presidential candidate.  I remain convinced that she is not Presidential timber and will not be elected; but hey…I did not think Obama would get re-elected either.  Having said that, if you squint your eyes a bit and gaze long enough through the haze, it is possible to see the avenue that could deliver Hillary into the White House.

Reality check: There is 40-45 percent of the electorate that will vote for the Democratic candidate in 2016; there is 40-45 of the electorate that will vote for the Republican.  Assuming there is no Bloomberg, or Trump, inserting themselves into the mix as a third party choice, it is the 10-20 percent of the electorate in the middle that will actually decide the 2016 Presidential election.  Although there is clearly divide and dissension in both parties, I think it fair to say the Democrats are far more disciplined than the Republicans when it comes to coalescing around their ultimate candidate.  They are much less likely to sit at home in a snit and not vote because their candidate did not get the nomination.  They seem to better realize that the game is on and it is time to put aside differences.  If this is true, then the margin of error in this area for Republicans is smaller than that of Democrats; predicting the urban vote in this nation is far easier than predicting the rural vote in this nation.  Both parties are now immersed in pretty intense primary battles.  Both parties are currently divided as to which candidate will best serve their party in the general election.  But once again, Democrats have traditionally demonstrated a better ability to put aside residual resentment once a primary winner is decided.  This puts a much greater value on Republican Party unity than on the Democrats.  The Republicans are much more prone to limit their focus to the primary battle at the exclusion of general election considerations; they tend to acquire tunnel vision until the primary is settled and only then do they begin to address the challenges of the general election.  They are, in the words of Bruce Springsteen and so eloquently presented by Manfred Mann, Blinded by the Light. 

The Democratic Party enjoys some great advantages when you consider the American electoral process.  Most notably, they enjoy a caretaker arrangement with the mainstream media.  Fox News, for all of its fair and balanced bullshit, is not typically fair and balanced.   Look at their nightly lineup and show me the balance.  Every time there is panel of experts, there will be perhaps one liberal and anywhere from 2-4 conservatives.  Factually, they do approach a high level of fairness and balance, strictly on a news basis; but their opinion and analysis is clearly and demonstrably conservative in nature.  That is, until the Presidential debates come up.  Then, in some bizarre type of effort to demonstrate their nobility to fairness and balance, they go overboard to eviscerate the Republican candidates; pitting them against each other and even laying video traps for them to fall into.  The Democrats are either too clever or too frightened to put themselves before the Fox News moderators; you be the judge whether this is to their credit or discredit.  But if you take Fox News out of the equation, there is no other outlet in the mainstream broadcast media that makes any pretense to anything other than Democrat bias.  The NYT and WP continue to be nothing more than rags for Democratic talking points; oftentimes to the point of obvious coordination.  MSNBC, CNN, and all the other cable channels do not approach the viewership level of Fox News; but when combined with each other and the traditional network coverage, they offer a quite adequate, if not superior, balance to the conservative tilt of Fox News.  One needs look no further than the debate moderator at the most recent Democrat debate hugging the candidates once the debate was over or Candy Crowley’s intervention on Obama’s behalf when he faced Romney.  Can you imagine Trump, or any other Republican candidate for that matter, hugging Megyn Kelly after the Republican debate? 

My point is this: Republicans and Democrats alike, whilst in the throes of their primary battles, tend to engage in a Ponzi Scheme state of mind.  They think that all of the arguments that they make against the other party is resonating with the national electorate; that the pure correctness of their logic is so clear that everyone can understand and embrace it.  Newflash: that ain’t so!  Just like the Ponzi Scheme profit comes from pulling others into the Ponzi Scheme, the party primaries’ profit comes from pulling party members into their own party.  There is no real profit; they are Blinded by the Light, because the real profit lies with the aforementioned 10-20 percent of the electorate that resides ideologically between the two national parties and is not really interested in paying attention until we get down to the two major party candidates.  The party self-effacement that occurs in the primary is absolutely stupid and counter-productive, but the Democrats have much less to lose in this regard than the Republicans.  The main stream media will help to lessen the impact of Bernie’s attacks on Hillary; that post-debate hug from Rachel was pretty much instantaneous redemption.  The wounds that the Republicans are inflicting on each other will not be so easily forgotten and will resurface at a later date to haunt them in ways that will not be pleasant.  Having paid little attention to the primary process of both parties, the electorate in the middle, the ones who will ultimately decide this contest, will simply tune in to the post-primary media environment and make their decision based on what they see and hear; some from Fox News and some from all of the others. 

Both parties and their respective candidates would be well-advised to stop directing all of their ammunition at their party faithful and leave a bit for the folks in the middle; but for the Republicans, this is a much greater urgency.  They need to cease their Ponzi Scheme mentality, stop being Blinded by the Light, and begin to focus on the issues and strengths of each candidate; not the weaknesses and foibles that will ultimately be leveraged by the Democratic Party in the general election. The primary process is a very efficient exercise in selecting an ultimate candidate, giving them the opportunity to hone their campaign skills and experience the political battlefield in anticipation of the ultimate conflict.  However, the concept of circular firing squads makes no more sense today than it did 200 years ago and the blind ambition of some candidates is really pretty pathetic to watch.

Through the lens of the Republican Party, it is very difficult to see how Hillary Clinton could be elected President.  Through the lens of the mainstream media directed to the 10-20 of the electorate that will decide the winner, it is quite possible to see how Hillary Clinton might be elected President.  She starts with a solid 40-45 percent and only needs about half of those voters in the middle, who are by and large uninformed voters dependent on what they read and what they hear.  If the Republicans hope to win the White House in 2016, they had better keep in mind that they will also need a solid 40-45 percent behind them to keep the field level.