Notes on Nevada D and South Carolina R.

Notes on Nevada D and South Carolina R.  Well, that was interesting.  The results of Saturday’s political events were not as revealing as were the analytics and aftermath.  Evangelicals going Trump, Bush dropping out, and Hillary continuing to squeak by…the hits just keep on coming in this mad, mad world of the 2016 Presidential Election Cycle.

First, the Democrats.  It is clear to anyone paying attention that barring a federal indictment, Hillary Clinton will be the Democrat’s nominee; by hook or crook, she will get the Democratic nomination. The media and the DNC are in the tank for her, she will find whatever funds are necessary to finance her campaign, and the delegate allocation system is pretty malleable (to her distinct advantage).  You think the Democratic race is close?  Not!  Clinton now has 502 delegates to Bernie’s 70.  As incredible as it is that a former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State is barely managing to publicly defeat a 74 year old avowed socialist, it is nonetheless reality and shows no signs of abatement.

Now, the Republicans.  It is equally astounding that at this point in the race, Bush has dropped out, Trump is the runaway leader, and Cruz and Rubio are fighting tooth and nail for a distant second place.  You would think that listening to a sampling of media responses; Trump is just a step or two away from coronation as the Republican candidate.  The fact is that he has only 61 of the 1237 delegates needed to secure the nomination.  By any stretch or interpretation, the Republican race has a long, long way to go before a decision is made.  With Bush now removed from the race and both Kasich and Carson rendered irrelevant, the attention is focusing down to a three-man contest between Trump, Rubio, and Cruz.  Very, very soon, we will be focusing on the numbers that count; that being the delegate count.  All of the polls and the pundits will become only so much noise and the mystery will be slowly revealed through the winding stretch of the American presidential primary landscape.  Here is what strikes me as interesting.  It is difficult to see any scenario where Trump will drop out of the race.  In fact, he will continue to nourish the possibility that he will mount an independent run if he is defeated in the Republican race.  Cruz continues to be flush with money, for the time being; and with Bush now out of the race and on the heels of his strong South Carolina showing, Rubio should have no trouble replenishing his campaign coffers.  I submit that it is not at all unreasonable to see the specter of an open Republican convention becoming a reality. 

Trump will not run out of money and his constituency, whatever it may be, seems to be pretty solid this far.  He is not going away.  Even though he continues to win with a plurality, he is winning nonetheless.  As long as Rubio and Cruz continue to split the non-Trump vote, the plurality game will continue to be successful for him.  It is equally clear that were Trump’s primary opposition to be distilled down to one candidate; he would likely find himself and his candidacy in jeopardy.  But what are the chances that he will soon be facing a single opponent?   Cruz is the darling of the hard conservative wing of the Republican Party.  If they have demonstrated nothing else, they have shown they are willing to take all manner of abuse and harm (even to the point of handicapping their party’s general election prospects) for the sake of perceived principle.  They are also blessed to have certain members with deep pockets.  Even if Cruz continues to finish third behind Trump and Rubio and even if his trailing gap expands, it is difficult for me to see him pulling out of this race before the July convention in Cleveland.  The table seemed to be set for a huge Cruz victory in South Carolina and the failure of that to materialize, I think, is more a product of Trump strength than of Cruz weakness.  But any way you cut it, South Carolina was a lost opportunity of Cruz.  The chance was there to pitch a spade full of dirt or two on Rubio’s effort and that opportunity is now passed.  Rubio was in a perilous position coming out of New Hampshire, but his strong finish in South Carolina appears to have righted his ship and he should be expected to carry his momentum into Nevada and the SEC Primary states.  My point is  this:  If neither Rubio or Cruz drop out, it is very conceivable that a continuation of a three-way delegate split up until the July convention could easily result in nobody acquiring the necessary delegate count of 1,237 in order to claim the nomination.  How crazy will that place in Cleveland be if you have the Trump circus, the Rubio establishment, and the Cruz zealots descending on it with all of their eyes on the nomination prize?  This thing could get real, real intriguing. 

As I have said before, I refuse to take Trump seriously.  I do not believe he will be the 2016 Republican nominee for President.  Imagine for a moment if he were not involved in this process.  Imagine on the left we have a spirited and principled debate between Clinton and Sanders for liberal governance and on the right, we have an equally spirited and principled debate between Rubio and Cruz about conservative governance.  My god, how refreshing that would be; talk about a teachable moment!  Instead, we have this incessant absurdity of static from an ego-maniacal, blustering buffoon who can afford to engage on a lavish ego trip with no motivation other than self-serving gamesmanship.  At some point in this process (and I suppose that point could be now), one must acknowledge the possibility that Trump could eventually be the Republican nominee.  If so, he might prove to be a reluctant alternative to Clinton or Sanders.  On the other hand, if the winds of this ridiculous presidential cycle continue to shift and swirl, and Hillary Clinton is indicted, Joe Biden might look like a pretty good choice as compared to Trump.

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