Outrunning the Bear.

Outrunning the Bear.  There is an old saying in rural America (at least in rural Kentucky) that goes along these lines: If you’re with a group of people in the woods and a bear gets after you, you don’t have to outrun the bear; you just have to outrun the slowest person in line.  I want to try and apply this analogy to the ongoing Republican Presidential Primary. 

First off, let’s look at some facts.  I really cannot figure out why the entire media community is in such a damned hurry to settle the Republican Primary.  Obviously, everyone has an agenda and those agendas run the gamut from the RNC being scared to death of having Trump as their nominee to the DNC wanting the process to end tomorrow with Trump as the nominee (both sides should be very careful about what they wish for).  But all of those folks in between…why do they want this thing over with?  Journalists make a living covering politics; why would they want to end this treasure trove of news stories sooner rather than later?  

Last night’s Republican debate in Texas was great stuff.  Regardless of your politics, you have to love the bare knuckles nature of that debate and the real glimpses it presented regarding the candidates.  Out of 2,472 total Republican Primary delegates, a candidate must amass 1,237 to gain the nomination.  Through March 15 (a full 18 days away; a lifetime in politics), a total of 1,517 delegates will have been awarded.  That number represents 61 percent of the total number of delegates.  In order to obtain the magic number of 1,237 by March 15, a single candidate must obtain 82 percent of the available delegates up to that date.  82 PERCENT!   Now Trump has clearly dominated the first four contests, but it has to be considered a stretch in anyone’s book to project him winning 82 PERCENT of the available delegates through March 15.  Within those primaries prior to March 15 are the home states of Cruz (Texas/155), Rubio (Florida/99), and Kasich (Ohio/66).  Now Trump might win one or even two of these three, but do you really think he will run the table?  In addition, there is a myriad of delegate allocation processes as we go from state to state; some winner take all and some with a variation of proportionality.  Bottom line: Will Trump accumulate 1,237 delegates by March 15?  I don’t think so.  Will he have a large lead in delegates by March 15?  That is possible.  What happens if he does not have 1.237 by March 15?  There will likely be one primary opponent that will compete with him for the remaining delegates to be allocated after March 15.  That number is 955, or a significant 39 percent of the total number of delegates.  Now I realize that politics is a strange and unusual business, but in what other competitive contest do you decide a winner when the game is not even two-thirds complete? 

And now…back to my analogy.  That group of folks in the woods being chased by the bear is running towards the cabin.  In this analogy, the cabin is the Republican Convention in July.  Rubio, Cruz, or even Kasich do not have to win every primary before March 15 or even have the largest number of committed delegates; they simply have to stay away from that perilous last position in line.  They have to stay in the game.  By my count, if after March 15 the Republican contest is winnowed down to two candidates, there is plenty of time and opportunity to have a spirited and open contest between two people.  And once again, there is always the possibility that we get to Cleveland in July and nobody has secured the delegate count necessary to claim the nomination.  Perhaps it is a product of the world we live in today that makes us all so anxious to end these contests early.  We all live so fast and our attention spans have shrunken dramatically.  But selecting a President is pretty serious business.  Selecting a successor to the sophomoric narcissist we have now had in the White House for seven plus years makes that choice even more critical.  Whether you are impressed with the sheer gravity of the decision or simply a great fan of political theater, it is in the best interest of all involved to back up a step or two, quit pushing quite so hard, quit jumping to conclusions and trying to be the first one to predict an accurate outcome, and simply let this deal play out.  As University of Kentucky basketball coach John Calipari has repeatedly told his rabid fan base on those occasions when he had great teams: Enjoy the ride.