Sky Diving and Touchy-Feely

Sky Diving and Touchy-Feely.  The New York primaries are in the book, and the national party presidential primaries haven’t really cleared up that much. Trump had a huge night, sweeping in 89 of the 95 Republican delegates on the table.  On the other hand, Clinton walks away from New York with 139 delegates compared to Bernie’s 106; not as impressive as the media might lead you to believe.  So…as we enter into the 90-day window for the national party conventions, what is the state of play for our national candidate selection process?

Trump now sits with 845 delegates, needing 1,237 to win the nomination.  Cruz has 559, Kasich has 147, and Rubio (who has put his campaign on hold) still retains 171 delegates.   As incredible as it may seem when considering his rhetoric, it remains true that Kasich is running fourth in a three-man race.  The biggest question to answer on the Republican side is whether or not Trump will acquire 1,237 delegates prior to the Republican convention in July.   If he does, drop the mike, the game is over, he is the nominee.  On the other hand, if he fails to reach that magic number, either by a handful of delegates or a few hundred, the question is certainly open as to whether or not he will be the nominee.  Political experts (there are so, so many) are all over the board about Trump’s chances to reach 1,237 and not only do you have to consider their factual arguments about the math; you have to consider their agenda also.  At this juncture in this campaign, I do believe that every single political pundit has some type of bias factored into their journalistic product.  Some hide it better than others, but the presence of that prejudice seeps into their observations and prognostications and the only way to account for it is to read a broad sweep of varying opinions.   After reading my broad sweep, I must confess that I simply don’t know what Trump’s chances are of winning the nomination.  I honestly think that his prospect of reaching 1,237 prior to the convention is 45% for and 55% against.  That is obviously a close call and can easily break either way.  Given the chaotic nature of this Republican primary season, one would be foolish to ignore the likelihood that there are a few non-anticipated surprises lying in the weeds.  The prevailing notion appears to be that if Trump fails to win the nomination on the first ballot at the convention, then he will not be the nominee; the thinking is that he will begin to bleed delegates on the second ballot.  It is fair to surmise therefore that the best opportunity for Cruz to seize the nomination will be the second ballot; during which he can commandeer some wayward Trump delegates, gain the allegiance of released delegates who are no longer bound after the first ballot, and maybe make a deal with Kasich or Rubio to consolidate their numbers.  Now if we get through two ballots at the Republican convention and there is no nominee who has reached the 1,237 mark, then we are truly through the looking glass.  History be damned; there is no precedent for what will then occur.  Neither Trump nor Cruz has many supporters in the RNC power structure and both have many political enemies.  The common theory is that a parachute candidate will be dropped in and will end up being the one that can pull together a sufficient number of delegates to win the nomination on the third, fourth, or subsequent ballot.  The RNC Convention Rules Committee will soon decide whether that parachute candidate (if such a thing occurs) must be one of the original 17 Republican nominee candidates or if it can be someone from out of left field.   Now even though this has been a campaign season bordering on the bizarre, it is difficult to imagine a parachute candidate from outside the original primary pool.   A maneuver such as this will be difficult at best; to expand the selection beyond the original candidates would make it nearly unpalatable for many.   So…as we sit here today, my guess is that the Republican candidate will be Trump, Cruz, or one of the other 15 original primary candidates.  How’s that for caution?  No, really…all of those options seem to be on the table at this time and it would be foolish to dismiss any of them out of hand. 

Clinton continues to lead Sanders in the Democratic primary; but her margin of lead is a very deceptive number.  Based on the number of delegates she has won, her lead is only 1,428 to 1,151.  But when you add in the Democratic super delegates, her lead expands to 1,930 to 1,189.  The Democratic candidate must reach a delegate count of 2,382 in order to win the nomination.  Clinton is closing in on that number and the odds are very good that she will reach it well before the Philadelphia Democratic convention on July 25.  Now lest we get too upset with the Democrats for having these super delegates who are nothing more than transparent power brokers; we must realize that the Republicans do the same thing in states where delegates are not bound by state-wide voting.  I really have no problem with this on either side; the party should select the candidate that best represents their philosophy and has the best chance to prevail in November.  Neither party (nor the media) has any grounds to criticize the other as to how they select their nominee.   If the respective parties can pick their candidate without blowing up their house, then they have accomplished their mission.  Now, back to Clinton…  I find the most interesting aspect of the current Democratic race to be the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton and the hyper-sensitivity she is showing in regards to Bernie’s increasingly harsh criticisms.  For all of her power and political assets, Clinton has still not achieved anything close to a public personality.  I honestly believe that at most of her events, you could simply put up a cardboard cutout of her and play a taped message; no one would notice that she is not there. However, having said that, the Republicans are fools to believe that her dry persona and her cloud of legal/ethical issues will make her a weak candidate; they make her vulnerable but not weak.  If she is not indicted, she will be a formidable candidate in the general election and stands a very good chance of being our next President.  But first, she must dispatch Bernie and his troublesome antics that are pulling her ever more leftward.  I’ve always thought that Clinton was much more of a true liberal than she is portrayed to be and that she never really bought into her husband’s pragmatic approach to governing.  I hope I am mistaken, but I truly suspect that if she becomes President, she may well bring in a Democrat Senate with her.  If so, she will have an unprecedented opportunity to stack the Supreme Court with liberal members who will help her to accelerate and basically complete the changing of our nation to a European model of socialism-light.  It is becoming increasingly clear that Bernie will not go quietly into the night and that Clinton will have to do more than simply throw shade in his direction to end this contest.  Whether or not she manages to win her primary contest in a fashion that is perceived to be gracious will go a long ways towards keeping her party united and improving her chances of winning in November.

The media is full of stories about primary campaign anarchy; mostly in the Republican ranks.  The fact is that chaos rules equally in both parties at this time.  But the larger truth is that once nominees are selected by both parties in July, there will be over three months for a lively debate about who can best lead this nation.  The length of the national campaign will be another interesting twist to this year’s Presidential election.  The typical national Presidential campaigns of the past have been about twice as long as this one is shaping up to be; with the candidates more times than not already selected by this time and the conventions simply being coronation ceremonies.  This time around, it will be a much more intense and compressed contest; so much money to spend and so little time to spend it. It may end up being half as long, but it will likely feel like it is twice as long.  This will no doubt be a very interesting contest; but first…we have to get down to two.