State of Presidential Play, May 1.

State of Presidential Play, May 1.  One of the most insane things a person could do at the present is try to make statements of fact about what we know and predictions about what we do not know regarding the 2016 Presidential cycle.  We passed through the looking glass several miles back and are continuing headlong into uncharted territory; so the only certainty is uncertainty.  But the internet exists and speculation exists and arrogance exists and the mixture of all three is a political blog; so…here are some insane statements.

There can be no doubt that Cruz selecting Fiorina as VEEP is an act of desperation.  However, there are times when an act of desperation is the only act that makes any sense; this is one of those times for Cruz.  If he can’t beat Trump for the nomination, he can’t be the Republican candidate for President.  Given the odds against him on beating Trump, it would be foolish of him to hold back any cards at this time and the VEEP selection is one of the prize cards in his thin hand.  How will this choice impact the Republican primary?  I have no idea and I have serious doubts if anyone really has any idea.  Indiana will give us a clue; but Indiana damn sure ain’t California.  I stand by my previous position: Trump’s shot at the nomination is the first ballot; Cruz gets a shot on the second ballot; Katy Bar the Door on the third and subsequent ballots.

There is much talk about Hillary pivoting her campaign from a primary mode to a national mode.   To put it more succinctly, she is pivoting from a more liberal and Obama-friendly stance to a more moderate and anti-Obama stance.  Any way you cut it, dealing with her inextricable ties to the two terms of Obama will require diplomacy of monumental proportions.  She absolutely NEEDS Obama’s support, publicly and privately, to win the presidency.  Unless there is a miraculous change in our economy and the world stage, Obama will be leaving office in a very unfavorable and lame condition; not particularly the type of political ally you would want by your side.   Now Hillary has never had any trouble having the face on the front of her head say one thing while the face on the other side of her head says another; but it hard to see Obama being OK with any shade thrown his way, be it sincere or otherwise.  Of all the challenges that Hillary will face in her ongoing White House quest, this kabuki dance between Hillary and Barack is likely going to be the most difficult.

I find it downright amusing to read that the majority of Democratic Party leaders and the mainstream media are of the opinion that Trump would easily be dispatched by Hillary in a general election and his nomination is simply the next step in her coronation.  This attitude both overvalues Hillary as a candidate and undervalues Trump as an opponent.  There will many angles and layers to a Trump v. Clinton contest, but the one that I find the most compelling is the one involving the economy.  As stated before, Hillary will be unavoidably tied to the current economy and at the present, it is difficult to finesse that in any way other than dismal.  Now I am not, nor have I ever been, a Trump fan when it comes to economic policy; but “I” will not decide the next presidential election.   Trump has clearly convinced a lot (a LOT!) of Republicans that he has all the solutions for fixing our ailing economy, and can then proceed to straighten out the world economy after that.  Forget how cogent this supposed ability of Trump is.  The point is that he has sold it to Republicans, he is well on his way to selling it to Independents, and anyone who doubts that he can sell it to a bunch of Democrats simply has not been paying attention.  If Hillary is tied to the dismal economic performance of Obama and Trump can continue his persona of economic wunderkind, it is not difficult to see this translating to a significant political advantage in the upcoming Presidential race.  Of all the historically high-ranking concerns of the American electorate, the economy is at or near the top.  People tend to vote their pocketbooks.  

If we have learned anything from this election cycle thus far, it is that perception is everything.  A Trump v. Clinton contest would pit two of the best ever at that game in a contest to the death (politically speaking, of course).  Although both candidates have particular and unique assets in their camps, the one inexplicable intangible that seems to swing elections in today’s world is the public’s yearning for change.  After eight years of our current president, people are absolutely ready for a change.  Consider the width and depth of Clinton’s political experience, corporate knowledge and financing, and her sheer political power.  Consider the financial resources of Trump, along with his Teflon-like ability to separate rhetoric from reality.  Put them side by side and you tell me:  Who looks like change to you?