Just Shut Up and “Do” Something.

My wife showed me a Facebook post about the hubbub surrounding a report that President Trump had once used Russian dressing on his salad.  Obviously meant as satire, this bit of foolishness cuts far too close to the mainstream media daily themes than is comfortable.  Like most people I know, I am sick of hearing “Russia this and Russia that”.  After starting out his Administration with some tough rhetoric about Russia and putting in place some very tough policies, our President is now sounding very much like his predecessors who failed miserably with Russian relations.  If Trump wishes to have a better ending with Putin, he best be focusing much more on his actions than on his words.

In December of 1991, the USSR officially disintegrated and broke up into fifteen separate countries, including Russia and Ukraine.  Vladimir Putin became President of Russia in 2000 and has ruled the nation ever since; occasionally as Prime Minister, but generally as President.  There were nine Baltic countries resulting from the USSR breakup, all of them having shores on the Baltic Sea.  At the time of the USSR’s ending, Putin was the reining spymaster for Boris Yeltsin and based on his remarks and behavior ever since, the disintegration of the USSR has obviously left a very big bur under his saddle.  He makes very little effort to hide his secret dream of reforming the old USSR by any means necessary.

Putin has seized every opportunity to meddle in the affairs of his neighboring countries; perhaps the most egregious being the takeover of the Crimean peninsula.   Russia’s largest naval base is located on the Black Sea in the Crimean peninsula.  This is the only warm water naval base that the Russians hold and they view their possession and control of it as a source of non-negotiable self-defense.  In March of 2014, Putin completed his effort to reclaim the Crimean peninsula for Russia.  Although the Crimean peninsula was clearly part and parcel of Ukraine, the majority of the Crimean population spoke Russian.  By fomenting turmoil and mayhem in Crimea through the use of undercover soldiering, Russia managed to annex the Crimean peninsula in March of 2014.  A key element in Putin’s restoration scheme was accomplished. 

Although the Russian takeover of Crimea was naked aggression and universally condemned by free nations, Putin referred to the invasion as “the will of the (Crimean) people”.  Putin saw what he wanted and he took it.  He gambled that the US, NATO, and any other European nation would not stand up forcefully to his actions.  He was right.  Putin now has his warm water naval port at Sevastopol in the palm of his hand and uses it daily to project Russian power out into the world (i.e. Syria).  In 2008, citing the need to protect citizenry, Russia had used similar tactics and reasoning to essentially annex regions of Georgia.  Russia has consistently threatened that any NATO alliance with a country that borders them will be considered a serious offense to their security.  They have sufficiently intimidated European leaders with this rhetoric and it has resulted in the reality of the border countries fending for themselves in their pursuit of freedom and liberty from Russia; a perpetual “David and Goliath” equation.

Putin is a man, and a leader, who understands strength and action, not rhetoric.  He remains hungry to restore the old USSR union as it was when he was chief spymaster.  He will do anything within his power to soften up and torment the former USSR states in order to help create future opportunities for annexation.   Russia’s covert war in Ukraine has cost over 10,000 lives and displaced well over 1.5 million people.  Putin is determined to keep Ukraine under his thumb and will stop at nothing to accomplish that task.   Putin’s power play in Crimea got Russia kicked out the G8 group.  Somehow, I don’t believe he has lost much sleep over that development. 

In my humble and layman opinion, the threat of Russia towards it’s Baltic neighbors is the largest international threat to America (yes, even bigger than North Korea).  What I find so threatening about the Baltics is that they are right there in Putin’s face; what was once his domain is now his enemy.  Where once he ruled from on high, he is now held in low esteem.  I am convinced that at some point in the foreseeable future, Putin will attempt to extend Russian influence into the Baltics just as he has done, and is doing, in Ukraine.  It is simply a temptation too ripe to resist.  Trump, America, and NATO cannot allow this to happen.  They need to get their collective heads out of their arse and show some resolve.  Rather than worrying about how many Mercedes Germany is selling in America, Trump and Merkel better worry about how many tanks they can put on Russia’s border.

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In September of 2009, Obama unilaterally abandoned a long-established joint venture with Poland and the Czech Republic to place missile defense facilities in each country.  The possibility of an ABM system in Europe’s eastern doorway rattled Putin badly.  Based on the promise of “Russian concessions”, Obama threw our fledgling allies under the bus and cancelled the agreement.  Now in fairness to Obama, there was quite a bit of sentiment both at home and abroad to support this action; but it remains a dubious policy initiative at best.  If Trump wants to be tough with the Russians and not just talk tough about the Russians, he will take steps towards placing these systems in Poland the Czech Republic.  This action, if taken, would undoubtedly provoke Putin and have some adverse international consequences.  But reality demonstrates to us that Russia is doing all it can to make life miserable for America.  What more can they do?  Russia understands power and the simple fact is that as of right now, the US has much more power than Russia.  We need to remind Putin of this.

Another bizarre twist in Russian relations is the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline.  As Trump stated recently, this arrangement between Germany and Russia is madness.  How can it possibly make any sense whatsoever for our NATO allies in Europe to rely on Russia for over forty percent of their natural gas energy needs?  This is not only a bone-headed position in which to place your nation’s basic security, but it is also a slap in the face to America’s companies that export natural gas.  When it leaves Russia, the Nord Stream pipeline passes by Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland on its way to Germany.  In the past, Russia has played hardball with these countries by cutting off their energy supplies to gain political leverage.  Now Russia will be in a position to do the same with our European NATO allies.  Do you think there is a reason why the Nord Stream line runs right past these nations without a connection en route?  Could it be to increase the energy-dependence leverage on them that Russia already holds?  Duh. 

Putin is a murderously threatening thug of a world leader.  He cannot be trusted and will never be motivated by anything other than self-interest and the restoration of the old USSR.  Every President I can recall seems to come into the White House thinking that they can somehow charm Putin into becoming an honest partner in negotiations.  They all end up learning too late that Putin is exactly what history has shown him to be.  President Trump is in love with the sound of his own voice and apparently thinks he can spring some of this art of the deal crap on Putin and use him like a tool.  If he continues to believe this and operates with the same rhetoric he has demonstrated lately, he will end up in Putin’s  tool box like other past presidents.  Trump needs to quit talking and start doing.  And a good place to start doing is the placement of an ABM/Aegis system in Eastern Europe, starting with Poland and the Czech Republic.  He needs to make it clear to Germany and any other Russian “Nord Stream” client that  it is a yuuuuggggeee mistake to depend on Russia for energy needs when their good friend and ally (USA anyone?) can supply the same product without the national security drama. 

Russia is a shell of a threat compared to what they were in the heyday of the USSR.   Their economy is not working; they are spread thin around the globe in many locations of misadventure; and with a robust American economy, we can build up our defense structure at a much faster and more effective rate than Russia.   What Russia can and will do is provoke our leaders at every opportunity.  They will side against us on the international stage if they perceive that slight to be harmful.  They will threaten us and they will use proxies to hurt us; but they cannot defeat us.  We need only hold our resolve and focus on the strong hand we have to play as compared to theirs.  Only if we lower ourselves to their playground tactics will we allow them to gain on us in the international theatre of political will and power.  Playing nice with Putin and hoping he will change his stripes is not an effective foreign policy.  Looking at history, examining his past behavior, and recognizing him for the ambitious tyrant that he is….that is an effective foreign policy.  I have to wonder…what is Mad Dog telling the Donald to do with Russia? 

We should never forget that when Putin lies down to sleep at night, he dreams of reclaiming those fourteen countries that were part of his homeland.  He has already taken large chunks from two of them.   President Trump’s decision to send heavy weaponry to Ukraine for self defense is a step in the right direction.  But the US needs to be much bolder in its embrace of Russia’s neighbors and their pursuit of independence and freedom.  I do not advocate for an American presence in these countries; but rather an honest and public show of support for their rights as free nations.  This is the battle that NATO should be waging.  These nations that thirst for freedom and are in their infant stages of independence could be, and should be, NATO’s first line of defense against the reality of Russian aggression.  These heroic nations that are fighting the Soviet giant do not want our blood; they simply want a fighting chance to survive.  This we can, and should, do.