CenterlineRight: The Short-Term Costs of the Long Game

The timing of the Iran Conflict is unfortunate. The political cost of it will take its toll by way of the mid-term elections, no doubt costing the Republicans some votes due to the impact of high oil prices. That will be somewhat mitigated by the true and valid reason of the issue…the simple fact is that the Iranians could not be permitted to acquire a nuclear weapon. They have proven themselves to be madmen…and madmen with a nuke are simply not tolerable. But the political cost will no doubt remain.

The progress of the conflict has ebbed and flowed. What began as an efficient military endeavor shifted to a cat-and-mouse game in the Straits of Hormuz, and has now settled into a long-term economic strangulation of the Iranian regime. In practical terms, the current strategy is sound. It eliminates the need for military conflict and the human risks involved therein. It eliminates the need for “US boots on the ground” which is clearly an unacceptable action. It is much easier to acquire allied involvement…especially Middle Eastern allies…in a financial effort as opposed to a military effort. And finally, it preserves the potential for the Iranian people to return to a reasonable status of function and prosperity…hopefully with a new government.

Along with many others, I spent weeks inwardly pleading with our President to drop the hammer, hit the remaining military targets, and get the hell out of the Middle East…returning home with a victory and turning the conflict over to the Middle Eastern nations most affected by the Iranian menace. I have now come to believe that I was mistaken. My anxiousness to wrap up the conflict in order to improve the mid-term election environment for the Republicans was short-sighted. That strategy would have left the current Iranian regime…though weakened and bloodied…still in firm control of Iran. It would have simply kicked the can down the road…ultimately requiring military action in the future, or counting on the long shot gamble that our Middle Eastern allies would effectively deal with the cancer in their midst.

The economic strategy being practiced now, if taken to a successful end, will weaken the Iranian regime to the point where it will be vulnerable to a popular uprising by the Iranian people and may possibly be overthrown. That is the best solution to the entire problem. That is the long game that is being played. It is regrettable that this long game will likely have the collateral effect of costing the Republicans in the coming mid-term elections. But that cost is minor compared to the fundamental goal of removing the Iranian terroristic threat for the future. The success of this current strategy is not guaranteed; but it certainly looks like the best way to approach the national…and international…security challenge posed by the Iranian regime.

President Trump knows all of this. He has the authority to push the button that drops the military hammer. He has chosen not to do that…fully realizing the political costs that will follow. The man deserves a great amount of credit for this courage, humanitarian restraint, and common sense. If, as it appears, the Democrats take the House and the Republicans hold the Senate…any real legislative progress for the remaining two years of the Trump Administration will be extremely limited. What will not change is the President’s ability to pursue a successful conclusion to the Iranian Conflict. And if at some point in the foreseeable future that struggle comes to a satisfactory conclusion…, then it should go down as a monumental accomplishment and President Trump should receive legitimate credit for placing national security concerns over politics.

And speaking of the long game, let us briefly consider our economy. The greatest economic accomplishment of Donald Trump’s first term as president was the fact that the US economy was fundamentally solid and reaching all levels of our working class. It was proof of the old saying that “a rising tide lifts all ships”. Inflation was low, jobs were plentiful, workforce participation was high, and upward mobility was tangible. Those who wanted to work had good jobs, good opportunities to move up, and were being rewarded for their efforts. The fundamentals were in place to establish long-term economic prosperity for all Americans.

The Covid Epidemic screwed all of that up. Our government went through a period of literally throwing money around like it was monopoly currency. People were shuttered and quit working. Small and large businesses failed. It was a miserable and heartbreaking time in so many ways and we are still living with the damaging consequences.

And then…along came the Biden Administration. Rather than make the hard choices that might address the social and economic challenges posed by Covid, they consistently took the easy way out. Their first reaction to addressing any problem was to throw money at it. They fueled the inflation furnace with cold, hard, taxpayer cash and the basic prices of goods and services soared into the heavens. What was the Biden Administration response to these high costs? It was to simply give people more money to spend. THAT did not address the cost of living challenge; that INFLAMED the cost of living challenge. THAT built a solid foundation beneath the high cost of living. It increased the height of the hill that must be climbed.

When Donald Trump came into office for his second term, he inherited the hot economic mess created by the Biden Administration. While his economic strategies have not been infallible, he has more or less returned to the successful steps he took in his first administration to return our national economy to a fundamentally good standing…one that will benefit all citizens. The Trump Administration has significantly reduced the size of government; it has seriously pursued the elimination of fraud in government entitlements; it has spurred industrial and technological investments through wise tax revisions; it has placed thoughtful individuals with real life experience in its economic policy theatre; and it has prioritized federal spending in a common sense fashion. What it HAS NOT done…along with all other elected officials…is show any conviction whatsoever towards restraining overall federal spending. It appears that is a bridge too far for any federal elected official.

The Iran Conflict has thrown a monkey wrench into this effort; but the Iranian Conflict will not last forever. It is so very critical that the Trump Administration economic strategy continue into the balance of his term. The high cost of living has reached its current state over the last six years and it will take time and good policy to bring it back down to reasonable levels. That type of treatment requires a long game approach.

Can the long game approach that is currently in place for both the Iranian Conflict and the US Economy survive a Republican defeat in the upcoming mid-term elections? That is the question that should be foremost in voters’ minds when they go to the polls this November. The power of the Executive Branch will largely enable Trump to continue his Iran Conflict strategy unimpeded. If it is brought to a successful conclusion, the benefit of that effort will endure.

However, the economic strategy of the Trump Administration cannot succeed without support from the Legislative Branch. In lieu of that support…in the instance of Democrat House and/or Senate control, the Trump Administration economic strategy will revert to a series of Executive Actions. That is a pitiful excuse for proper governmental function and will be doomed to failure. The consequences of that failure could lead to a Democrat in the White House come January of 2029, and considering the candidates vying for that spot…it would not bode well for our nation…in both an economic and foreign policy sense. Do we really want to go back to the Biden Administration economy?

Look…Trump is an arrogant blowhard. But we do not elect saints for president; we pick someone who should be able to manage. Trump has demonstrated he can manage. Reagan was a Hollywood actor; but he rescued our nation from dismay and brought back prosperity and patriotism. Clinton was a serial womanizer; but he balanced the federal budget for the only time in my life. The Bushes were competent; but ungrounded in conservative principles. Obama was/is the ultimate narcissist who could not get past his own image in the mirror. His autopilot mode of governing perpetuated many of our nation’s problems and created new ones that had never existed. Biden was/is a hopeless, incompetent fool. The bottom line is that if we have proof of performance…if a candidate has a record…we should look at that record and base our decision on facts.

It is hard for all of us to consider the long game when having to deal every day with the short game. Curing serious ills is hard and oftentimes requires strong medicine. Taking the medicine might be unpleasant…but it feels so good when it quits hurting. I would encourage voters to realize that the future of oil prices will be a downward spiral. Upon conclusion of the Iranian Conflict, considering the new and abundant inflow of Venezuelan oil, and realizing that our nation is actually energy independent and exporting oil to other nations…the oil-driven sectors of our economy will be moving towards a much more affordable position. That reality will have a moderating effect throughout our economy. Our job sector is healthy and improving…AI technology, abundant industrial/financial investment cash reserves, and the need to replace military assets based on the Iranian Conflict depletion…all of these things will help to lift our economy to a point where we can once again have the vibrant, growing, and far reaching American affordability environment that we enjoyed in the first Trump Administration…pre-Covid. Never forget the hard truth: We will get the government we deserve. Think hard before you vote this year.