Is the Moment of Truth Upon Us?

Is the Moment of Truth Upon Us?  Quick count on the current delegate standing for the Republicans: Trump/329, Cruz/231, Rubio/110, Kasich/25; remember that 1,237 are needed to secure the nomination.  Ask yourself this question: What is the top priority for the 2016 Presidential Election?  My answer would be that Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, or Donald Trump (in that order of priority) does not end up in the White House.  If that is your goal; how is it best accomplished?

I have thought for some time now that Rubio would be the best candidate that the Republicans could nominate; because he would have the best chance to win in November.  I have also stated that Cruz or Kasich would do just fine in the White House; they simply had a lesser chance of winning in the general election.  Kasich is irrelevant if we are going to talk about winning; either in Cleveland or in November.  Therefore the question remains: How do we achieve the top priority?

On March 5, 155 delegates will be allocated; on March 6, 23; on March 8, 150; on March 12, 28; and on March 15, 367.  Now if Cruz and Rubio continue to collectively outperform Trump, along with the crumbs that Kasich acquires, the delegate count will likely remain sufficiently split to leave the ultimate winner in doubt right up to the convention in Cleveland.  But what happens if Rubio begins to slip?  What happens if his noble (and greatly appreciated) effort to disrobe Trump ends up accomplishing that aim but weakening himself in the process?  What happens if his slippage vote goes partially to Trump?  What happens if he fails to win the take-all contest in Florida and Kasich fails to win the take-all contest in Ohio?  At this point in time, Cruz does not appear to be in a competitive position to defeat Trump in either Florida or Ohio.  So if Rubio and Kasich remain in the race, but in a weakened state, the prospect of a sufficient delegate split that prevents Trump from obtaining 1,237 is dim.  If they can retain their vitality and win their home states, then Trump might well be denied the number he needs.  Here lies the quandary…If Rubio contests Florida and loses Florida to Trump, the prospect of a Trump overall victory is enhanced tremendously.  In addition, if Kasich contests Ohio and loses Ohio to Trump, Trump’s prospects of gaining the nomination are very good.  It would seem that there is a window somewhere between the contests on March 5 and the contests on March 15 when Rubio (and to a far lesser degree Kasich) need to either decide they are all-in on their home states and have a good chance at victory or recognize that it “just ain’t gonna happen” and support Cruz in hopes of heading Trump off.  The moment of truth in this Republican nomination process might very well be the next 48 hours.

This has to be extremely difficult for Rubio.  He clearly is a strong candidate with principled positions and a clear vision of where he would like to lead this country.  He has abandoned his Senatorial seat and dedicated all his time and resource to the pursuit of this nomination.  He believes in what he says and wants to be President.  I cannot imagine how hard it would be to give up that quest at this time and place.  But if, as I fear, after today’s contests in KS, KY, LA, and ME he finds that he has fared poorly and made no movement to close the gap that is widening between himself and Cruz; then I submit that the only noble path remaining is to throw his support to Cruz in an effort to defeat Trump. 

Cruz if 45 years old and Rubio is 44; both are very young for presidential candidates.  They are both very conservative on their policy positions and though they have their differences; those differences are more in practice than in principle.  It is quite possible that the best path to keeping Sanders/Clinton/Trump out of the White House is for Cruz and Rubio to join up with Cruz heading the ticket.  I can only imagine that if egos could be shelved (or at least reasonably managed), great and marvelous things could be accomplished for the country by a President Cruz, a Vice-President Rubio, and legislative leaders Ryan and McConnell.  Rubio would be making a great sacrifice, but he would certainly be young enough to run for President after Cruz has served his two terms.  If the team were as successful as I would hope, Rubio would be in a great position to run at the relatively young age of 52.  Can you just imagine how much could be accomplished with true, conservative leadership in the Executive Branch over a 16 year period?  Cruz in turn would have to appreciate the sacrifice made by Rubio and give him the respect and meaningful input opportunities commensurate with that sacrifice.

If Cruz and Rubio could join up in the next few days, they would stand an excellent chance to offer a clear and preferable choice to Republican voters now; and to all voters at a later date.  But the chance to make that move has a shelf life.  If Rubio stays in and loses to Trump in Florida, we may very well be too far down the road for a combination ticket; it would certainly look a lot more desperate at that time.  It pains me to concede the dim chances of a Rubio nomination; but it excites me to think what positive changes could be made to this nation by a limited government and fiscally-responsible Executive Branch.  Will this moment of truth pass us by or will it be seized in a way that will change the future of our country?   We will know very soon.

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