Taking a Breath and Counting the Injuries.

Taking a Breath and Counting the Injuries.  Bernie had a good night in Michigan and surprised a lot of folks.  His magical mystery tour will continue on for a while and cause a great amount of discomfort in the Hillary camp.  However, the discomfort will not prevent her from obtaining the Democratic nomination; only an indictment will do that.  On the other hand, the Republicans are a different matter.  Let’s do some number crunching….

To date, 1,030 delegates have been awarded.  That is 42 percent of the total 2,472 that are available.     Remember that the number of delegates necessary to obtain the Republican nomination is 1,237.  Thus far, Trump has won 44 percent of the delegates, Cruz has won 35 percent, Rubio has won 15 percent, and Kasich has won 5 percent.  The current delegate counts show Trump with 458, Cruz with 359, Rubio with 151, and Kasich with 54.  Of the 1,442 delegates remaining to be allocated, Trump needs 779 to win, or 54 percent of the total; Cruz needs 878 or 61 percent, Rubio needs 1,086 or 75 percent, and Kasich needs 1,183 or 82 percent.  The final primary is June 7 in South Dakota; the convention is July 18 in Cleveland.

When you look at the current delegate count and the fact that we are 42 percent through the primary process, there can be no other conclusion but that this is a two-man race between Trump and Cruz.  Furthermore, notwithstanding the fact that media coverage would lead one to believe that Trump has essentially won the nomination, Cruz is simply not that far behind; he trails by only 99 delegates.  99 delegates just happens to be the value of Florida.  Rubio and Kasich are now faced with the very real possibility of losing their home states and this is no way to exit the race.  Whether they stay because of stubbornness or calculation, a home-state loss for either will be damaging to their future political careers.

Two preconceptions have been blown up at this point in the race.  One is that Trump would fade away and be exposed for the charlatan that he is.  He has been exposed, but that does not seem to matter.  He has demonstrated his appeal to Republican voters in every segment and demographic of the electorate.  He is very real, he is in your face, and he must be dealt with.  Cruz has also trashed the notion that his appeal would be limited to the evangelical communities of the south.  He has clearly demonstrated he can be competitive in all areas of the country and has put together a very impressive organization.  By any reasonable calculation, one of these two men will be the Republican nominee for President.

The wild cards in this play are now Rubio and Kasich and exactly how their exits from the campaign will be orchestrated.  When that occurs and how it is presented will have a tremendous impact on who the ultimate winner will be.  This week’s debate in Florida, assuming all four candidates are still on stage at that point, should be fascinating to watch.  With each campaign independently developing their debate strategies, who knows what will happen when all come together on the same state? 

This presidential campaign season has proven to be wild, crazy, unpredictable, downright bizarre and it is far from over.  But as of this moment, the odds are looking favorably on a Trump v. Clinton contest for President in November.  If that is the case, there will be many people in each party who will be considering these wise words from the Talking Heads (Once in a Lifetime) over the next few years…..

And you may ask yourself
What is that beautiful house?
And you may ask yourself
Where does that highway go?
And you may ask yourself
Am I right?...Am I wrong?
And you may tell yourself
MY GOD!...WHAT HAVE I DONE?