As we put 2020 behind us, along with a poisonous presidential election and all the upheaval visited upon us by social unrest and the coronavirus pandemic, we turn our sights towards tomorrow. Our world, our nation, and our new President face many uncertainties. The President in particular will be confronted with foreign and domestic policy challenges that will test his metal both in the scope of his political skill and the strength of his character. There will be times when the wind is at our back. Occasionally the wind will be in our face. And almost constantly, there will be crosswinds blowing in unpredictable fashion. Below are some good links to avail when considering what lies ahead in our future.
First let’s take at look at the condition of our nation as it relates to FOREIGN POLICY. For our American government, it has historically been the case that the politics of foreign policy stop at this nation’s border. That is not true anymore. It is difficult these days to tell exactly who is an ally and who is an adversary; both in country and out of country. That will not get any easier in the days to come; and the critical nature of foreign policy decisions will only escalate.
China cursed our planet with the cornonavirus plague. It makes sweetheart deals with multi-national corporations while enslaving its own population and placing its political dissidents in labor camps. It blatantly and shamelessly steals America’s innovative ideas while commandeering any foreign investment on its mainland. China's espionage adventurism in America makes it a deadly enemy both now and well into the future. It sees itself not as our equal on the international stage; but as the preeminent power in the world. How will our new President deal with China? https://nypost.com/2020/12/31/will-joe-biden-take-on-our-alarming-china-problem/
The Middle East cauldron continues to boil and is always threatening to erupt into a raging volcano of death and destruction. How will Iran be treated by our new President…and how will it treat him? Will he build upon and honor the peace treaties delivered to him by his predecessor? How will the relationship between the US and Israel fare under a Biden Administration? Here is a good article that sets the stage for that dynamic: https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/us-israel-iran-revenge/
The European factor will continue to hover in the background of the Middle East, China, and Russia concerns; but its critical importance to the global stability of democracy will remain a top consideration for our new President. What is the future for NATO? Germany remains an enigmatic ally that is not only very unpredictable, but is also sometimes extremely problematic. Dealing with the most powerful economy in Europe will be quite the challenge. Consider some of its past behavior: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16907/germany-un-security-council
Our oldest and hopefully most loyal ally remains England. But with Boris Johnson at the helm and that nation heading off into the post-Brexit territory, our good friends across the pond are going to be quite consumed with their own problems and may be needing us more than we will be needing them: https://www.jns.org/opinion/lessons-from-britains-brexit-breakthrough/
Climate change will no doubt take center stage in the Biden Administration’s execution of foreign policy. And with John Kerrey in charge of that operation, the realm of unpredictability (and ridiculousness) is limitless: https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2020/12/30/john_kerry_false_prophet_of_the_climate_apocalypse_654911.html
The Coronavirus pandemic stands astride both foreign policy and domestic policy. As a transition from one to the other and for a thoughtful look at some of the lessons we might glean from its wreckage, here is a very interesting perspective: https://amgreatness.com/2020/12/29/the-virus-is-not-invincible-but-its-exposing-whos-irreplaceable-2/
Staying with the coronavirus impact a bit longer, here is a good article on how America’s small business community has been disproportionately hammered by the pandemic. For those of us who live in rural America, we have seen firsthand the tragic results of this calamity unfold as the many draconian shutdown policies have been mandated and administered: https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/amazon-walmart-saw-profits-surge-2020-small-businesses-saw-plummeting-revenue
Life after the pandemic will no doubt feature many of the changes that were implemented because of the plague, but will likely remain after the plague is extinguished. Some will remain because they were already in motion and the pandemic simply accelerated that motion; and some will remain simply because we found out that we liked them and want to keep them around. One of these is the emergence of “working from home”. Almost everyone has either been personally impacted by this phenomenon or know someone who has. Of all the lasting effects of the coronavirus episode, this one might be the most significant in a cultural sense. This new trend in working arrangements will no doubt have ripple effects throughout our working lives, society, and economy.
When we turn our focus to DOMESTIC POLICY, we find many important issues swirling. It is difficult to disassociate any of them from politics; which seems to have infected every aspect of our lives. But that is the reality of today and we as a nation must deal with these issues if we are going to survive. There is little doubt that the Biden Administration will be born out of conflict and dissension. There are truly rough seas ahead on the home front.
As we look towards Congress and the working relationship it might have with our new President, we are waiting for the resolution of two very important events. One will be the special Senatorial elections coming up in Georgia. Senate Republicans currently have 50 seats in the Senate, while the Democrats hold 48 seats. The Democrats will continue to maintain a slim majority in the House. Put in its simplest terms, if the Democrats win both races, they will then have a Senate majority with the vote of Vice-President Harris. If the Republicans can win either one or both of the races, they will maintain majority control of the Senate. It goes without saying that moving forward with a Democrat President, a Democrat House, and a Republican Senate is a recipe for legislative gridlock and rancor. The political war would begin early on with the confirmation battles involving the new Administration’s appointees. From there, the potential for conflicts is endless regarding judicial nominations, limitless hearings and investigations, and budget battles.
On the other hand, full Democrat control of all three elements would usher in opportunities for dramatic changes that heretofore have only been dreamed of. These changes will either be progressive-minded adjustments to our Constitutional interpretations that result in a more evolved government or, depending on your perspective, create an unnatural deviation from the Constitutional design that founded and frames our government. When I say that these changes have only been dreamed of, the point I make is this: One party has controlled the House, Senate, and Executive branch before; that is nothing new. The difference this time around will be the emboldened aspect of using that control as a political bludgeon to achieve a partisan agenda. There will be little if any semblance of shame or bipartisan consideration in the manner that these changes will be achieved and implemented. It will be raw and brutal political power.
The other critical Congressional element that we are anxiously awaiting is the selection of the House Speaker position. Next to a Democrat President and when the House is controlled by his Party, this position is historically occupied by the second most powerful Democrat in America. We know that Speaker will be a Democrat and it will likely be current Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Through her no holds barred/bare knuckles engagements with President Trump, Pelosi has managed to heave severe political damage upon the President. She no doubt has been in high spirits since the November election thinking that her battle is won and her war is over. But her political tactics and maneuvers have also resulted in some adverse public opinion of the Democratic Party. It no doubt contributed to both the failure (thus far) of the Democrats to take control of the Senate and their absorption of significant seat losses in the House. Pelosi must now deal with the consequences of her actions and quell what appears to be an insurrection in her own Party: https://www.newsmax.com/politics/house-pelosi-speaker-republicans/2020/12/31/id/1003835/
It would not be wise to bet against Pelosi. She has faced opposition before and has come out on top every time. There is no reason to think that this time will turn out any differently. However, a Democratic House ruled by a Speaker other than Pelosi would certainly put a different dynamic into play regarding future legislative activities. This would be true even if the Democrats gain Senate control via the Georgia races; but would be especially significant if the Republicans retain majority control of the Senate. In that case, who might McConnell’s dance partner be?
To help illustrate the obvious fact that Americans, specifically those elected to public office, have the shortest memories on the planet; pay attention to how the upcoming Congressional Electoral College Vote plays out in the next few days. The full view of the scenery changes rather dramatically depending on your seat in the theatre, does it not? https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/01/accepting-the-electoral-college-vote-or-not.php
There is a ticking time bomb in America that I have addressed on many previous occasions. It is the federal budget deficit and ballooning federal debt. It is the result of our Congress and Presidents habitually, irresponsibly, and increasingly spending more money than they have coming in. What is the current federal deficit? Let’s take a look: https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-budget-deficit-3305783
No doubt, there are appropriate times when federal expenditures might need to exceed our tax revenues. There are economic slowdowns that require stimulus. There have been times of war when money had to be spent on defense. And as we have just witnessed, there are natural disasters such as the pandemic that wreak havoc on our budget dynamics and must be dealt with monetarily. The problem is that our government has adopted the attitude that the fiscal restraint concessions that can reasonably be made in these times of national emergencies can just as easily apply anytime. And that is how they have unashamedly operated since the late-1990’s; at which time this government actually achieved a balanced federal budget. Unfortunately, both national political parties have dropped any pretense of doing any serious work towards federal fiscal responsibility. That is evidenced by my previous post regarding the latest stimulus legislation.
Should we be concerned about the federal deficit and debt? I think so; others not so much. Here is an interesting point of view: https://fee.org/articles/5-reasons-to-worry-about-soaring-federal-debt/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI8Mq08bH77QIVwbiGCh2NswfmEAAYAiAAEgIlbvD_BwE
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If you have become disillusioned and frustrated with our American elections and adopted the belief that "your vote doesn't count"...you are mistaken. Read this article and always remember that the next time around, this situation might be in your county, state, or nation: https://www.dailywire.com/news/pelosi-to-seat-gop-congresswoman-elect-who-won-by-six-votes-on-provisional-basis-says-spokesperson
There is a final item to consider on the domestic policy front that will no doubt be a topic of much discussion in the foreseeable future. It is the subject of election reform. I happen to believe that there is no problem with the American concept of federal elections as set forth in the Constitution. I embrace the federalist aspect of having 50 states conduct their own elections and then conflating them all, through the Electoral College, to achieve a final result. One good thing about that system is that it is nearly impossible to manipulate the entire election; one can only affect a few states. It also insures that every state, both rural and urban areas, has some significant input in the final determination. The bad news is that messing with a few states is sometimes sufficient to change the entire outcome. The problem as I see it is not with the overall plan; the devil is in the details.
If we accept (and not everyone does) the wisdom of the Electoral College, then we must come to grips with the fact that it is a chain only as strong as its weakest link. True and effective election reform must take place at the state level, in state legislatures, and under the supervision of state government officials. In some fashion, we must find a balance between federal minimum integrity standards that might apply to each state and the flexibility for each state to conduct elections as they see fit. Let us delve into that deep, dark realm that is election reform. Please note that I have linked liberal, conservative, and centerline opinions regarding reforms.
Lest we fall under the false illusion that the integrity, transparency, and fairness of the federal election process is a serious matter of high priority for our elected officials, please consider this news item from June of 2001 regarding the 2000 Presidential election fiasco: https://www.brookings.edu/research/an-agenda-for-election-reform/
Let us continue with a current clarion call for reform: https://priorities.aei.org/make-the-2020s-a-decade-of-reform/
Here is a good perspective on that state-by-state reform effort mentioned earlier: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/opinion/2020/12/02/opinion-battleground-states-should-model-election-reforms-after-ohio/6476326002/
There is a lot of reform talk going on around the country. But will anything come of it? https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/529570-legislatures-across-country-plan-sweeping-election-reform-push
The Electoral College has proven to be a hard nut to crack. Here are some more ideas about how to reform it. You can dig as deep as you like: https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30804.html
Maybe if we can’t abolish the Electoral College, we could just tweak it a bit: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/05/04/electoral-college-reform-2020-226792
Or perhaps we could simply get down to the process of collecting and counting the votes in a responsible and transparent method: https://www.heritage.org/election-integrity/commentary/ensuring-the-integrity-our-election-system
And just to insure some balance, here is a Democrat Senator and a liberal politico who have all the answers: https://time.com/5925180/election-reform-2021/
Do you ever wonder if it is even conceivable that our nation could slip into anarchy? When you view the recent violence experienced in the American Northwest and Great Lakes areas; the routine weekend massacres that we are witnessing in Atlanta, New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago; and the rampant calls for disrespecting and defunding police departments across our country…the impossible is certainly seeming a bit more possible. Reflect on this: https://jonathanturley.org/2020/12/31/nypd-search-for-teens-responsible-for-attack-on-car-on-fifth-avenue/
If you have read this far I will leave you with some humor, which is the best medicine of all to ease your political discomfort…whatever that might be. Here is a bit of satire from the Babylon Bee.
Political correctness has reached new and stratospheric levels of absurdity. Brand names from table syrup to professional athletic teams have been changed for specious reasons. Consider this: https://babylonbee.com/news/cracker-jacks-changes-name-to-more-politically-correct-caucasian-jacks
Another aspect relating to our hyper-ventilating condition of excessive behavioral judgment is the politically correct policepersons (i.e. Karens) that live among us. They and their super-sensitivity to anything they perceive as objective are…well, they are simply hard to put up with. For example: https://babylonbee.com/news/man-in-critical-condition-after-hearing-slightly-differing-viewpoint
And finally, there is the old Second Amendment debate that comes and goes; but never quite goes away. Anyone who has been within earshot of a gun store knows that nothing spurs gun and ammunition sales like a pending presidential election. Needless to say, the fact that Joe Biden will soon be our President has not made it any easier to find the gun you want or the ammunition you need to fire it. Combine this with the ongoing circus of stimulus legislation and this is what you get: https://babylonbee.com/news/gun-stores-overwhelmed-by-people-returning-600-guns-for-2000-guns
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