As Joe Biden circles the Democrat wagons and Donald Trump fires up his MAGA base, the first true step towards selecting a 2024 Republican nominee for president is scheduled to take place in Iowa on January 15. I would like to submit for your consideration four different outcomes (but not the “only” possible outcomes) of that caucus exercise, the contests to follow soon after it, and where they might lead us.
Scenario 1:
Trump has consistently held a commanding lead over DeSantis and Haley in Iowa
polling; he continues to hover at or above 50 percent. If Trump wins this contest with a number
equal to or greater than 50 percent and if his winning margin is 25 points or
more, it is difficult to see any outcome other than an eventual nomination for
Trump. DeSantis has apparently pushed
all of his chips to the center of the Iowa table, while Haley has pretty much
done the same in New Hampshire. If in
fact Trump wins in this fashion, the real question will be how DeSantis reacts
to this defeat. He could simply spin his
weak second place finish to the best of his ability, move on to another pending
defeat (finishing behind Haley… likely
third place or worse) in New Hampshire
(January 23), and then head on down to Haley’s home state contest in
South Carolina on February 24. It is
difficult to see how DeSantis can spin anything other than a very close second in Iowa or an outright
Iowa win into any type of competitive challenge for the New Hampshire or South
Carolina contests. In this scenario,
Haley is the only remaining alternative to Trump after Iowa and she is likely
in a “must win” New Hampshire
position.
Scenario 2:
Trump wins Iowa, with DeSantis a distant
second and Haley in third place…but very
close to DeSantis. Having taken his
best shot and considered the tea leaves, DeSantis understands the calculus. He
suspends his campaign and leaves the nomination-hunting trail to contemplate
his political future at the youthful age of 45.
He may…or he may not…choose at
this moment to throw his support to Haley.
If he is truly concerned about the future of his party and his nation,
he will realize that Trump must be denied the nomination and jump behind Haley. On the other hand, he might calculate that
the possibility of a Trump implosion still
exists and he would like to be around for consideration as an
alternative “if” that were to
occur. The announcement of a DeSantis
withdrawal from active campaigning combined with her current New Hampshire
momentum could possibly set the stage for a Haley upset over Trump in the Granite
State. If that were to occur, the stakes
of the February 24 contest in South Carolina would be raised dramatically and
we will finally find out the true extent of Trump’s popularity in the
Republican Party. At this point in time,
one would have to believe that if Haley could defeat Trump in both New Hampshire and South Carolina,
she would then become the frontrunner for the Republican nomination; or, at a
minimum, be on par with Trump.
Scenario 3:
Donald Trump comfortably dispatches DeSantis in Iowa. Donald Trump defeats Haley in New Hampshire (anything beyond a razor-thin margin would
suffice), and then completes his destruction of Haley’s possibilities by
defeating her in South Carolina…on her
home field. Trump is now the de
facto nominee and coasts to the end.
There could be a possible
variation in S3 where subsequent to a razor-thin Trump victory over Haley in
New Hampshire, she then wins the South Carolina primary. In this case, you would have to believe that
Trump and Haley continue to battle it out until Super Tuesday, March 5, when one
would likely vanquish the other.
Scenario 4:
DeSantis wins Iowa. Having spent most of his resources in gaining this victory, how likely
is it that he can transfer some of that momentum back east to New Hampshire
where Haley is already strong? That
would indeed be a heavy lift. With Trump
weakened by his defeat in Iowa, Haley wins the New Hampshire primary, staving
off the bloodied Trump and the recent-victor DeSantis. Haley now heads to her home state of South
Carolina in a very good position to win that primary, with Trump and DeSantis
splitting the balance of the Palmetto State pie. All three candidates continue on to Super
Tuesday, where a final winner will likely be decided.
If
you had to choose a role, it sure looks like Trump has the inside track with
Haley a second choice and DeSantis operating on a hope and a prayer. The bottom line is this: once January 15 and
February 24 pass us by, we will have a much better idea about who the Republicans will be putting up
for president in 2024.
On
to the news…………
I am literally dumbfounded by the continuing,
and unaccountable, denials of the
Democrat Party, the mainstream media, and the full complement of the progressive
element as they constantly proclaim the saintly innocence of the corrupt Biden
Family Enterprises. That corruption,
having taken root and seed in the Biden family for decades, has now permeated
not only the Democrat Party but also the Executive Branch of our government (particularly the Department of Justice/DOJ). The bald-faced efforts of the DOJ to target
individuals and groups in a partisan and/or idealistic fashion, to effectuate a
multi-tiered system of injustice in our nation, and to abdicate its
constitutional role in government to serve instead as an appendage of the
progressive movement is an historical tragedy and abomination. The Biden Administration and that entity,
with the DOJ serving quite effectively as their guardian angel and enabler, are
blatantly attempting to reinvent our country into a image they covet; an image
wholly inconsistent with our Constitution.
This is who they are and how
they operate:
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/12/the-biden-family-business-revised-version.php
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/12/our-fisa-ist-state.php
https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/22/a-glaring-sign-of-rot-within-the-cia/
This is what they are trying
to do:
https://www.city-journal.org/article/claudine-gays-dei-empire
https://nypost.com/2023/12/21/news/carol-swain-calls-for-claudine-gay-to-be-fired-from-harvard/
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/what-do-falling-college-readiness-scores-mean/
https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/21/teacher-union-power-is-still-in-full-bloom/
After the actions we have seen from
the Biden Administration in this area, “why” would any reasonable person make a
student loan repayment? https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/18/only-60percent-of-student-loan-borrowers-made-payments-when-bills-restarted.html
We need to see more of this:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/12/a-victory-against-dei-in-wisconsin/
Not content with the damage they
have wrought on our nation…at so many
levels and in so many ways…with their Diversity/Equity/Inclusion madness,
the Biden Administration and its progressive allies continue to force down the
throats of Americans their idiotic ideals encapsulated in their Green New
Deal.
https://the-pipeline.org/cop-out-welcome-to-the-climate-circus/
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/12/the-golden-age-of-coal.php
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/electric-vehicles-madness-in-new-mexico/
And while Biden’s handlers and
allies try to figure out how to convince us that “down is up” and “two plus two
equals five”, the people of our nation are coming to grips with the
malfeasance of Bidenomics and the
unforgiveable fiscal irresponsibility of BOTH
national political parties when it comes to federal spending.
https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/18/media-spins-while-parents-struggle-with-bidens-economy/
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/national-debt-has-increased-twice-fast-under-biden-trump
https://justthenews.com/government/congress/deficit-spending-13-compared-time-last-year
https://reason.com/2023/12/21/all-i-want-for-christmas-is-for-congress-to-exercise-fiscal-restraint/
Without question, one of the more
alarming trends that we saw worsening
during 2023 was the unholy alliance between the Democrat Party, the progressive
movement, and the mainstream media. Casting aside all pretense of ethical
journalism and accepted the Biden Administration (think “DOJ”) as their full-fledged partner, the mainstream media
has become a shameless and useful idiot in service to their masters and
cohorts. The scary part of the equation
is how successful they are it and how emboldened they have become in their
implementation of it.
https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/18/we-are-well-beyond-hypocrisy/
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/12/how-sad-can-you-get.php
https://www.nationalreview.com/the-morning-jolt/the-new-york-times-misreads-its-own-poll/
https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/20/netflix-and-the-erasure-of-history/
https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/24/will-the-guardians-of-the-narrative-win/
https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/21/will-partisan-lawfare-destroy-trump/
And now we can add to this deadly
brew of corrupt politicians, unethical propagandistic journalists, and radical
ideologues….none other than rogue jurists. This is truly the kind of stuff we have
witnessed from “third world dictators”
in recent decades. The next time you
hear a Democrat speak of a future President Trump as a “dictator”, understand exactly who
it is that is weaponizing government agencies (DOJ) against their political enemies, attempting to remove rival
candidates from ballots (Colorado),
literally cancelling state primary elections (Florida) for fear of poor showings, and perverting the balance of
power in our government through extraordinary executive actions.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/12/20/a-judicial-insurrection-against-democracy/
https://reason.com/2023/12/19/removing-trump-from-the-colorado-ballot-wont-make-things-better/
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/12/colorado-forces-a-14th-amendment-crisis-to-get-trump/
Three quick closing links…..
A reflection on the year just
behind us and the year just ahead: https://amgreatness.com/2023/12/25/2024-the-year-of-our-reckoning/
Another outstanding Bari Weiss
podcast addressing the gut-wrenching issue of abortion:
https://www.honestlypod.com/podcast/episode/201cb8ed/the-case-of-kate-coxand-the-trouble-with-the-abortion-debate
It never ceases to amaze me these days
how closely attuned “fact” and “fiction” have become; the Babylon Bee continues
to highlight this point: https://babylonbee.com/news/clarence-the-angel-takes-gavin-newsom-to-florida-to-show-him-what-california-could-look-like-if-hed-never-been-born
No comments:
Post a Comment